The pre-election study by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS), elaborated between April 10 and 18 with a sample of 8,017 interviews, places the Partido Popular de Andalucía in a dominant position facing the regional elections of May 17. The formation led by Juanma Moreno would obtain 43.6% of the votes and between 51 and 59 seats, with a most probable estimate of 55 deputies, just the threshold that marks the absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament.
This result would allow the PP-A to re-edit, and even consolidate, the absolute majority achieved in June 2022, when it reached 58 seats. However, the survey itself leaves room for uncertainty by contemplating a scenario in which the popular could fall slightly below that key figure of 55 deputies, which would open the door to other parliamentary balances.
For its part, the PSOE-A, headed by María Jesús Montero, would obtain 25.8% of the votes and between 27 and 34 seats. Although it would improve by 1.7 points compared to 2022, it would remain far from the PP-A, consolidating a difference of almost 18 points which reflects the relative weakness of the socialist bloc in the community.
In the rest of the political spectrum, Vox would remain as the third force with 10.3% of the votes, although it would lose 3.2 points compared to the previous regional elections, placing itself in a range of between 8 and 17 seats. Behind, Adelante Andalucía would experience a notable growth up to 8.5% (+3.9 points), which would allow it to reach between five and seven deputies.
The coalition Por Andalucía, which integrates IU, Podemos and Sumar, would fall to 6.9% of the votes, losing eight tenths compared to 2022 and being relegated to fifth position with between four and five seats. For its part, the formation Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF), led by the agitator Alvise Pérez, would obtain 1.9% of the votes, insufficient to achieve parliamentary representation.
Regarding citizen perception, the survey reflects that 53.3% of Andalusians consider that the current situation of the community is “good or very good”, compared to 35.1% who rate it as “bad or very bad”. Furthermore, 39.5% believe that Andalusia is “better or much better” than four years ago, while 35.8% think the opposite.
Finally, the CIS places Juanma Moreno as the best-rated and preferred leader to preside over the Junta, with the support of 43.8% of respondents and an average score of 5.78, being the only candidate who approves. They are followed at a distance by María Jesús Montero (20.7% preference and a 3.84 rating), José Ignacio García (6.9% and 4.74) and Antonio Maíllo (4.62), consolidating the current president's leadership in the Andalusian political landscape.
