The new barometer from the Andalusian Studies Center (CENTRA), published one month before the May 17 elections, consolidates the dominance of the Popular Party in Andalusia. The party led by Juanma Moreno would win clearly again, placing itself between 54 and 57 seats and 42.8% of the vote, very close to the absolute majority it achieved in 2022.
Although the PP drops slightly compared to the 58 deputies obtained in the previous elections, the poll reflects that it maintains a widely dominant position on the Andalusian political board. The difference with the rest of the forces remains very wide, which reinforces Moreno's leadership as the main political figure in the community.
Furthermore, the evolution of recent years shows a notable solidity of the popular vote. After reaching its highest point in March 2024, with estimates of up to 46.1%, the party has experienced a moderate adjustment, stabilizing at levels that remain much higher than those of its competitors.
In this scenario, Vox continues to grow and stands between 17 and 20 seats with 15% of the vote, improving its 2022 results. This advance strengthens the right-wing bloc and expands governance options around the leadership of the PP.
On the contrary, the PSOE, with María Jesús Montero as candidate, remains stagnant. The poll grants it between 26 and 27 seats and 21% of the vote, far from the 30 deputies and 24.1% achieved in 2022, without clear signs of recovery.
In the alternative left, Por Andalucía remains at 5-6 seats (7.8%), while Adelante Andalucía would rise slightly to 2-3 deputies (6.3%). However, the fragmentation of the progressive bloc limits its options against a more consolidated center-right space.
The barometer also points to an abstention of 43.7%, which indicates that there is still room for mobilization. With a relevant part of the electorate pending to decide their vote in recent weeks, the scenario remains open, although with a clear favorite: Juanma Moreno and the Popular Party.
