The president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juanma Moreno, would consolidate his absolute majority for the elections on May 17, according to a GAD3 poll for ABC, which grants the Popular Party between 57 and 59 seats, above the 58 he achieved in 2022 and above the absolute majority threshold, 55 seats.
The study reflects a very wide advantage of the PP over the PSOE, which would be between 30 and 32 deputies, in figures very similar to those of the last regional elections. For its part, Vox would maintain its support practically intact, with 13-14 seats, without managing to capitalize on the wear and tear of the Andalusian Government.
In the space to the left of the PSOE, the poll points to a contained representation. Por Andalucía would obtain between 5 and 6 seats, while Adelante Andalucía would move around 2 deputies, remaining as a minority force.
The PP would again position itself as the leading force with an estimate close to or above 40% of the votes, consolidating its hegemony in the community. The PSOE would remain as the second force around 25%-27%, while Vox would move around 13%-14%.
From the Andalusian PP, they have highlighted that the data reflects support for Moreno's management and have disseminated a message along those lines on social media. In a message published on X, the party emphasizes that “Andalusia advances with stability and leadership”, claiming the government action of the autonomous Executive.
🟢 @JuanMa_Moreno nears the absolute majority in Andalusia.https://t.co/GBJ6nwlMvP pic.twitter.com/M5YCvHHAV4
— PP de Andalucía (@ppandaluz) March 29, 2026
The GAD3 study also points to the strength of Juanma Moreno's leadership, whose personal approval rating continues to be one of the main assets of the Popular Party in the community. The loyalty of the popular electorate and the ability to attract moderate voters explain, according to the poll, the solidity of its results.
