The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) anticipates a summer with temperatures above average in practically the entire territory. The forecast comes after a worrying climate assessment: spring 2026 has been the second warmest since records began, and summer 2025 consolidated as the hottest in the historical series.
The astronomical summer will officially begin on Sunday, June 21, at 9:24 AM and will extend until September 23. For that period, the models managed by AEMET place the probability of a warmer than normal summer between 50% and 70% in most of the country.
By zones, the probabilities are distributed as follows: around 50% in the Peninsula, 60% in the northern and eastern thirds, and up to 70% in the Balearic Islands. In the Canary Islands, although the percentage is lower (around 40%), it is still higher than the scenario of temperatures below usual.
More heat concentrated in July, August, and September
The trend intensifies even further in the central part of summer. According to the seasonal prediction, the July-August-September period has a probability greater than 70% of being warmer than normal in a large part of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. In the peninsular southwest and the Canary Islands, that probability is between 60% and 70%.
AEMET also warns that maximum temperatures will progressively rise over the next few days, with especially high values starting from the weekend, in a context already marked by increasingly frequent and prolonged heat episodes.
Regarding precipitation, the uncertainty is greater. Models point to a possible slight trend of above-average rainfall in some areas, especially in the peninsular southeast and the Canary Islands, although AEMET insists that summer remains a climatologically dry season.
This does not imply abundant precipitation, but a possible higher frequency of stormy episodes, which could be locally intense at certain times of the summer.
El Niño enters the scene in a warmer global context
Added to this scenario is the influence of the El Niño phenomenon, associated with the anomalous warming of Pacific waters. According to AEMET, this is an episode that is already active and could reach a notable intensity, with thermal anomalies exceeding two degrees.
Although there is no clear direct relationship between El Niño and the climate in Spain, experts point out that these episodes usually contribute to an increase in global temperatures and can indirectly influence broader atmospheric patterns.
The AEMET climate report confirms that 2025 was the third warmest year on record in Spain, tied with 2024 and only behind 2022 and 2023. In the last decade, the country has chained numerous maximum temperature records, reflecting a clear warming trend.
Since 1961, the average temperature in Spain has increased by 1.75 ºC, and recent years concentrate most of the extreme records, both of heat and prolonged heat waves.
An exceptionally warm spring as a prelude
Spring 2026 reinforces this trend: it has been the second warmest in the historical series in the Peninsula. April marked an absolute record for average temperature, and May was dominated by a persistent heat episode that raised values far above usual.
Overall, the data consolidates a clear pattern: increasingly longer, warmer summers with a higher frequency of thermal extremes throughout Spain.
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