The European Union is studying the possibility of rationing fuel and adopting exceptional measures given the risk of a “lasting” energy shock caused by the war in Iran. This was warned by the European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen, in an interview published by the newspaper Financial Times.
Jorgensen has pointed out that Brussels is evaluating “all options” in the face of a scenario of sustained pressure on energy markets. “Energy prices will be higher for a long time,” he stated, while emphasizing that, although the EU is not yet in a supply crisis, it is indeed preparing for possible structural effects derived from the conflict.
The impact has already been felt in the price of oil. After the first attacks, the Brent barrel soared to close to 120 dollars, subsequently stabilizing around 107 dollars, although with high volatility. This situation is directly linked to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, through which approximately 20% of the world's maritime crude oil transport passes.
The European Commissioner has recognized that the tone of the institutions has changed as the crisis prolongs. “The rhetoric we are using is now more serious than at the beginning,” he explained, insisting that the Commission's analysis points to a prolonged scenario in which countries must guarantee their energy supply.
Although the most drastic measures, such as kerosene or diesel rationing, are not yet immediately on the table, Brussels already contemplates these scenarios as part of its preventive planning. “We are preparing for the worst scenarios… it is better to be prepared than to regret it,” Jorgensen has pointed out.
Among the most exposed sectors is the air sector, with airlines especially concerned about the supply of kerosene. The Commission does not foresee for now modifying the current regulations, although it does not rule out regulatory changes nor new releases of strategic reserves if the crisis intensifies. In addition, the EU keeps supply alternatives open, including imports from the United States, while avoiding for the moment altering its framework on Russian liquefied natural gas.
