Since last December the electoral cycle that the Popular Party strategically designed with the objective of wearing down the PSOE and reducing its dependence on VOX started —objectives that have not always been met—, all contests (Extremadura, Aragon and Castile and León) have been interpreted in a national key. The last early election, the Andalusian one, which perhaps did not initially respond to a direct mandate from Genoa, will undoubtedly be the most relevant for both Feijóo and Sánchez.
But, what is really at stake?
The Popular Party, with its candidate Juanma Moreno Bonilla, is playing to revalidate the absolute majority, which would allow it to maintain the rod of command without depending —exceptionally— on VOX's far-right. A scenario that, furthermore, would directly reinforce Feijóo's position against Abascal.
The main asset of the popular party is the personal brand of Moreno Bonilla himself: stability and management during these years, with a generally positive assessment among Andalusians according to multiple surveys. The Andalusian candidate is, along with the Galician Alfonso Rueda, one of Feijóo's main assets of trust “because they share vision and strategy,” they trust in the national leader's team.
From Genoa, they remain in total support mode for everything that the Andalusian leader may need, who has a clear roadmap: “not to mention VOX, not to enter their discursive framework and to focus the campaign on the wear and tear of the socialist candidate, María Jesús Montero”, and, by extension, of the President of the Government himself, Pedro Sánchez.
From the Council of Ministers to the battle for San Telmo
In the case of the PSOE, Sánchez's strategy, already launched with a poor result in Aragon, is repeated: minister-candidate. With a relevant nuance: María Jesús Montero has not been just any minister, but “the woman with the most power in democracy,” as she herself recently assured, or at least one of the figures with the greatest capacity for influence in the current Executive.
He arrived at La Moncloa in 2018 from the Government of Susana Díaz and, in less than a decade, has consolidated himself as one of the key figures of Sánchez's environment. All that he has of internal recognition, he has as a “sanchista” for the Popular Party.
Thus, Montero —who will also count on the arrival of a good part of the Executive in Andalusia during the campaign— aims to recover a historic socialist stronghold. To do this, the key is to mobilize the half million abstainers of 2022.
Unlike the PP, Montero will indeed incorporate VOX into her speech, seeking to place Abascal's party in the same bloc as Moreno Bonilla's and Feijóo's PP. Furthermore, she will frame the campaign as a management test, especially regarding public healthcare, the Andalusian Government's weakest point after the breast cancer screening crisis, uncovered at the end of 2024 and worsened in 2025, affecting between 2,300 and 4,000 women.
The double objective of VOX: to condition the PP and dispute the leadership of the left
Manuel Gavira, parliamentary spokesperson for VOX in Andalusia during this legislature, will be the party's candidate in the regional elections. However, unlike other parties, territorial leadership is not the focus of the campaign: everything revolves around the hyper-leadership —increasingly questioned— of Santiago Abascal. The rest is secondary.
According to internal polls handled by VOX, they are confident they can tie in vote percentage and seats with Montero's PSOE. In the socialist circles in Madrid, aware of the growth of Abascal's party, they admit “room to worsen results”, especially if in provinces like Almería, Málaga or Cádiz the PSOE falls to third position.
The umpteenth error of the alternative left, also in Andalusia
To the structural and conjunctural difficulties of the PSOE is added the persistent void to its left. The different brands and confluences have not managed to articulate a solid space in the territories, and everyone is aware that the electoral law harshly penalizes the fragmentation of the vote.
On this occasion, three spaces converge: Podemos —which runs the risk of being left without representation—; Por Andalucía, the coalition formed by Izquierda Unida, Movimiento Sumar and Iniciativa del Pueblo Andaluz; and Adelante Andalucía, the party led by Teresa Rodríguez.
The deadline for the registration of coalitions is April 3. On the decisions they adopt will depend not only their political survival in Andalusia, but also the depth of a crisis that, inevitably, will again have national reading.