The situation in Ceuta outlines the most complicated start to the academic year for the Government, which is redefining its initiative and political agenda until the crisis is resolved

Years ago, politicians waited for summer vacations to work their magic: the beach or the mountains would temper spirits with the hope that most citizens would forget some of the issues that had marked the political course. However, from the point of view of current politics, vacations have become a huge burning cauldron in which disputes and crises—old or new—are not only slow-cooked but also leave a thick smoke that creates an unbreathable atmosphere even before the new term begins.

This summer, the massive entry of thousands of migrants into Ceuta at the end of July has conditioned everything. Government members acknowledge “fundamental errors” that have hampered political initiative, causing a negative feeling among some citizens, who do not perceive management capacity from La Moncloa.

Executive sources admit that this was not the planned strategy. Housing and economy were the issues with which they intended to regain initiative and the agenda at the start of the term for “a final push” before the elections. However, now everything revolves around Ceuta. The autonomous city has become the magnetic field with the greatest concentration capacity.

The situation there outlines the most complicated start to the term for the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, who is focusing part of his time on the appearance next day 3 in the Congress of Deputies. Sources close to the president explain that he will defend the measures—those already in force and those that will be approved this week, such as the 165 million euros that, according to El País, the Council of Ministers will approve—as his firm intention to resolve the situation “as soon as possible.”

Sánchez plans to make a detailed review of the resources that have been put on the table to try to return to normality, although part of his team recognizes that there will still be weeks of management in a situation that will focus the entire political battle.

The PP sees the Government's capacity as “sunk”

In the Popular Party, they are convinced that Pedro Sánchez has less and less time left in La Moncloa. The situation in Ceuta, according to sources from Génova, depicts a “sunk” Government that “drags its feet” and shows itself “incapable” of providing a solution to the people of Ceuta.

The team of Alberto Núñez Feijóo is also considering the possibility of elections during the first months of 2027, so any issue will be raised to give battle long before the campaign officially begins.

The PP considers Sánchez's upcoming appearance in Congress relevant, which, although they emphasize it is late, they believe will be a good opportunity to expose the dereliction of duty of a government that, in their opinion, no longer has a way out.

ANALYSIS | The Government's pending agenda: housing, Budgets and the challenge of regaining the initiative

Between the appearance on the 3rd and the issues that the Government had planned to place at the center of the agenda to channel the opening of the course, the Executive is playing for more than just the management of the Ceuta crisis in the coming weeks.

The housing decree, with measures such as the extraordinary extension of rental contracts, tax incentives for owners, regulation of seasonal rentals and greater protection for vulnerable tenants, will also have to face the difficult balance between parliamentary partners with very different demands and the ability to exercise cross-vetoes.

Added to this is one of the main challenges of the legislature: to pass the 2027 Budgets, which would be the first of this term and for which the Government starts from a particularly complex scenario.

These are, in short, the issues with which Moncloa intended to regain political initiative after the summer and which are now conditioned by a crisis that threatens to monopolize the agenda. The Government is thus playing not only for the management of Ceuta, but also for the ability to once again set the pace of the legislature.