Frente Amplio puts housing at the center of 29N with the slogan "A vote like a house" and prepares its battle against the far-right Vox for the last seat

Ada Colau has chosen housing to try to recover on 29N and her team has already identified about fifteen provinces where she believes she can win the last seat. The Broad Front presented its campaign this Monday under the slogan "A vote like a house", with Seville, Zaragoza, Cadiz or Pontevedra among the constituencies where it aspires to improve its options. In several of them, the coalition places the far-right Vox as a direct rival for that deputy.

The Minister of Social Rights and campaign spokesperson, Pablo Bustinduy, has defined the elections as a "referendum on inequality and housing". The bet highlights the trajectory of Colau, who went from the Platform for People Affected by Mortgages to the Mayor's Office of Barcelona. The candidate has already advanced two of the proposals with which she wants to mark the campaign. A law to expropriate homes from large investment funds and a tax reform that, according to the coalition's calculations, would raise an additional 10,000 million euros per year with three new taxes.

The Broad Front vindicates the labor reform and the minimum wage increases promoted in coalition governments and, at the same time, attributes to the PSOE part of the resistance to intervene more in the housing market. Bustinduy has called it "classic" for the socialists to campaign with measures that, in his opinion, went ahead thanks to their partner. The minister has announced that they will present new proposals during the campaign to mark these differences.

The first test will arrive before the official start. The coalition supports the general strike on Wednesday, November 11, called for housing and wages. The following day, the Congress's Permanent Deputation is scheduled to vote on the two decrees that the Government approved again on October 6 after the rejection of the previous texts. Among the measures whose continuity is at stake is the extension of rental contracts. That same night, Colau will put up the first posters in Vallecas.

10% and the fight for the last seat

Bustinduy maintains that getting close to 10% of the votes would allow the Broad Front to double its projected representation. This is the campaign's calculation. Congress distributes deputies by constituencies, and the weight of each vote depends on how many seats are chosen and how support is distributed among the candidacies. Seville distributes twelve, Zaragoza seven, and Navarra five. A rise of several points across Spain can open the door to several deputies if concentrated in provinces where the coalition is already close to obtaining them.

The polls show room to reach that goal. 40dB., for 'El País' and 'Cadena SER', attributes 5% and ten seats to the Broad Front in its central scenario. Sigma Dos, for 'El Mundo', gives it 6.5% and between nine and eleven deputies, and separately counts Compromís-Front Valencià and Unidad del Pueblo Canario. Ateneo del Dato, for 'elDiario.es', places the coalition at 6.1%, seven tenths below its previous survey. Each study groups territorial candidacies differently, a difference that should be kept in mind when comparing their figures.

The daily monitoring by SW Demoscopia for 'La Séptima', updated Sunday night, offers the tightest scenario of the four. It gives Colau's space 7.6% and thirteen deputies, counting the Valencian and Canarian alliances. In that estimate, the PSOE would be the leading party with 128 seats, but PP and Vox would together reach 177, one above the absolute majority. The central scenario of 40dB. raises that sum to 192 by including the joint candidacy of PP and Unión del Pueblo Navarro (UPN). In the first case, two seats changing blocks would be enough to leave the right below 176. In the second, the swing would have to be much larger.

Colau's other dispute is with the electorate that voted for Sumar in 2023, when Podemos was part of that candidacy. In the Ateneo del Dato poll, 38% of those voters would now choose Frente Amplio, 13.5% the PSOE, and 11.1% Podemos. This explains Bustinduy's insistence on claiming Yolanda Díaz's management. While asking for votes to stop Vox in certain provinces, she also needs to win back those who recognize the government's measures and lean towards Pedro Sánchez's ballot.

From Vallecas to key provinces

The poster pasting will be on Thursday the 12th in Vallecas, before the campaign officially begins at midnight. The first major rally will be on Saturday the 14th in Seville, where Enrique Santiago leads the list. On Sunday the 15th, Colau will be in Zaragoza with Chunta Aragonesista. The team has also announced stops in Euskadi, Castilla y León, and Gijón during the first week. Yolanda Díaz and other ministers from the space will participate in the campaign.

The tour will give prominence to the partners of a coalition that brings together 15 formations, with Movimiento Sumar, Izquierda Unida, Más Madrid, and the Comuns at its core. The visit on the 19th to Valencia will be with Compromís-Front Valencià, the candidacy in which Podemos and Esquerra Republicana del País Valencià also participate. Colau will hold her central event on the 21st in Barcelona, where she runs alongside the Minister of Culture, Ernest Urtasun. On the 22nd, she will support Unidad del Pueblo Canario, shared with forces such as Nueva Canarias and Podemos, and on the 23rd, she will be in A Coruña. The closing will be on Friday the 27th in Madrid, where Emilio Delgado leads the ballot.

Agreements also change depending on the chamber. Frente Amplio and PSOE share candidacies for the Senate in numerous constituencies, while competing separately in Congress, which decides the investiture. And in Colau's tour, housing will intersect with different problems in each territory. The campaign plans to dedicate events to the tourism model, labor rights, culture, feminism, and the climate emergency.

From posters to WhatsApp "missions"

The coalition has budgeted 1,630,125 euros, of which 1.1 million correspond to ordinary expenses and 530,125 to the sending of electoral propaganda. The bulk will be financed with advances on subsidies, party contributions, and donations. The deployment includes 111,110 posters, 989,000 pamphlets, 97,400 stickers, and 43,500 diptychs with their proposals.

To this distribution is added 'Frenteamplistas', the WhatsApp initiative that already exceeds 60,000 followers, according to data released this Monday. The coalition is inspired by André Janones, the Brazilian deputy who organized the support network for Lula da Silva in the second round. Eduardo Rubiño and Alicia Carrera propose daily tasks to the participants. Some consist of disseminating publications and videos on social networks. Others are done in the usual chats, sending campaign proposals to family and friends.