The two major parties regain ground in voting intention. The Popular Party (PP) reaches around 34.2% in April, compared to 33.3% in March, while the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) rises to approximately 31.7%, from 30.8% of the previous month, both consolidating an improvement of close to one point.
The momentum of both formations had already been glimpsed in the regional elections of Castilla y León, where they managed to strengthen their position against other forces. Despite this improvement, the right-wing bloc continues to lead clearly and exceeds 50% if the support of PP, Vox and Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF), which falls from 2.3% to 1.6%, is added.
In the case of the PSOE, the international context seems to have influenced voter behavior. Pedro Sánchez's stance on the conflict in the Middle East coincides with an increase in the transfer of votes from Sumar, which goes from less than 6% in February to almost 16% in April. At the same time, leaks to the left are reduced by half, while the loyalty of the socialist voter grows three points and mobilization improves by about six.
Vox, for its part, breaks the upward trend it had maintained during the last half year. The party led by Santiago Abascal falls one tenth and confirms the slowdown that had already been anticipated in the elections of Castilla y León, where it failed to meet expectations nor expand its advantage within the conservative bloc.
The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, takes advantage of this moment to strengthen its position. The popular party reduces the leakage of votes towards Vox from 15.2% to 12.8% and achieves an increase of nine tenths, which allows them to reverse the downward trend they had been registering since the beginning of the year.
In the space to the left of the PSOE, the situation remains one of weakness. Sumar remains practically stable at 5.8%, while Podemos drops to 2.8%, losing six tenths. Together, both formations add up to 8.5%, almost four points less than in the 2023 general elections, when they ran in coalition.
The data, from the latest poll conducted by 40dB. for 'EL PAÍS' and 'Cadena SER', reflect that, despite the slight recovery of PP and PSOE, both continue below the results obtained in the 2023 elections. Even so, the PP maintains a two-and-a-half-point advantage over the PSOE and, together with Vox, would consolidate a sufficient majority if general elections were held today.
