Sánchez takes for granted the conservative turn in Andalusia with a PP majority and prepares to survive it without altering his plans

For more than two decades, dozens of Andalusian municipalities were considered socialist strongholds. However, in 2022 they already turned towards the Partido Popular to grant it a historic victory. A change that also fits with a broader trend: Spain is turning to the right.

And not only because of the electoral results that have been occurring in different territories, but also because of deeper issues related to the ideological debate on taxes, political centrality, the welfare model, social rights, or even institutional consensuses. In all these areas, a shift is also perceived.

Returning to Andalusia, the past reminds us that the PSOE was the most voted force uninterruptedly between 1982 and 2008, achieving its best result in 2004. But the present and the immediate future now threaten to draw the worst result in its history in the community. “We fear the worst,” prominent leaders of Andalusian socialism privately state.

With polling stations open since nine in the morning, more than 6.8 million citizens —in the country's most populated community— are called this Sunday to elect the 109 deputies of the Andalusian Parliament. And it is precisely in these hours where the PP hopes to “destroy” its rival electorally.

In Alberto Núñez Feijóo's team, they recall how in Aragon they managed to defeat who had been the spokesperson for Pedro Sánchez's Government and now hope to repeat the operation against who, until just a few months ago, occupied the first vice-presidency and the Ministry of Finance: María Jesús Montero.

Meanwhile, in La Moncloa —the same place where the strategy of converting ministers into regional candidates to strengthen territorial federations was designed— they are preparing for nothing to change. “The elections will be held when due by calendar,” they repeat when asked if the Andalusian result could alter Sánchez's plans. None of that.

But, what does each formation aspire to?

The popular candidate, Juanma Moreno Bonilla, starts as the clear favorite in elections that he himself brought forward, taking advantage of a favorable demographic context. The unknown is not whether he will win or not —something practically no one questions— but whether he will reach the 55 seats that would allow him to govern with an absolute majority and without depending on VOX.

For her part, the PSOE candidate, María Jesús Montero, repeats the minister-candidate scheme already seen recently in Aragon with Pilar Alegría. According to polls such as 40dB for El País, she could stay around 23% of the votes, which would translate into between 27 and 30 seats: practically half of the seats the PP aspires to.

An especially tough scenario for Andalusian socialism if tonight's scrutiny confirms that the popular party doubles its parliamentary representation.

Meanwhile, VOX, which aims to reach 15 seats —one more than in 2022—, hopes to become decisive for governability. The ideal scenario for Santiago Abascal's party is for the PP to fall below an absolute majority and need one or two additional seats to govern, as already happened in Extremadura, Castilla y León, or Aragon. The objective: to continue nationalizing its agenda and its discourse of national priority.

The alternative left —Por Andalucía, made up of IU, Sumar, and Podemos, together with Adelante Andalucía— would add around ten deputies and faces the day with the objective of measuring its capacity for resistance. One of the main differences between both projects continues to be, precisely, their relationship with the PSOE.

In Feijóo's PP, at this hour, they celebrate that in Ferraz nothing seems willing to change. The planned script is being fulfilled and that, they admit privately from the national leadership, “is better for us.”