The Government maintains its confidence in the housing decrees less than 24 hours before the vote, although the PNV's rejection of automatic rent renewal leaves that reform without a majority. The Executive's spokesperson, Elma Saiz, insisted this Thursday that she remains "reasonably optimistic" and called for parliamentary groups to state their position before Friday's extraordinary plenary session.
The day clarified two of the unknowns that complicated the negotiation. Podemos will support both decrees and the PNV will only back the first one, which contains the bulk of the protection measures. Junts keeps its decision pending and will meet its leadership tonight, while Coalición Canaria must also set its vote. The possibility of saving the main package still depends on them.
Saiz defended the prior work carried out with partners on issues "that improve the lives of all citizens". After meeting in Madrid with the Basque counselor Nerea Melgosa, she avoided anticipating a scenario in which no regulation goes forward. "It is time for the groups to state their position," she said, maintaining the message of confidence that Pedro Sánchez expressed on Wednesday.
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Sánchez intervened again this Thursday with an Instagram message addressed to those who must decide on the continuity of the measures. "This Friday each parliamentary group will have to decide which side it is on," he stated. The president contrasted the protection of tenants and small owners with the interests of large fortunes and funds that speculate with housing.
The Minister of Housing, Isabel Rodríguez, has chosen to speak of "moderate optimism", acknowledging that she could not yet announce an agreement. In an interview on 'Hoy por Hoy', on Cadena SER, she explained that the negotiation has required concessions to bring positions closer. This search for support has conditioned the scope of the package and still does not guarantee the validation of the two norms.
From Sumar, the Minister of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and Agenda 2030, Pablo Bustinduy, has called for the approval of both decrees to end the "financial casino" of housing. During a visit to a building in Madrid whose residents denounce real estate speculation, he warned of the electoral cost that those who block the measures may face and accused real estate interests of fueling a fear campaign.
Also the Minister of Culture, Ernest Urtasun, defended this Thursday that the decrees can go ahead and asked for time for the parties to hold their internal debates. The Executive thus maintains public pressure on its partners while continuing contacts, although the announced positions already make it necessary to distinguish the future of each text.
The PNV blocks the reform and Junts decides tonight
The no of the five PNV deputies changes the scenario of the second decree. Even support from Junts and Coalición Canaria would be insufficient with the current positions. The confirmed supports add up to 165 votes and could reach a maximum of 173 with these two formations, without exceeding the opposing votes. If the groups maintain what has been announced, the automatic renewal will be rejected this Friday.
The Basque nationalists consider that this reform is counterproductive and harms small owners, in addition to arguing that it will reduce the rental supply. Their yes to the first decree will also be critical, because they understand that it contains shortcomings, although they value the protection measures for vulnerable people and the improvements for landlords with few homes.
Podemos has cleared its position in the opposite direction. Ione Belarra has confirmed that the four deputies of her party will vote in favor of the two texts, responding to the request of the Confederation of Tenants' Unions. The party maintains its criticisms of the scope of the measures, which it considers insufficient, but has decided to support them and continue demanding changes through mobilizations.
Junts will virtually convene its leadership at 9:00 PM. Its spokesperson in Congress, Míriam Nogueras, has expressed concern and disappointment with the decrees, without anticipating the vote. Their decision remains decisive for the first text. An abstention could allow its approval if Coalición Canaria votes in favor and the other announced supports are maintained.
Coalición Canaria still needs to resolve its position after hearing from its island leaders. For their part, ERC, EH Bildu, Compromís, and BNG support both decrees, along with PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos. The difference between the two votes lies with the PNV, which joins the majority favorable to the main package and aligns with its detractors on automatic renewal.
The PP and the far-right Vox maintain their rejection of both norms. The popular deputy secretary of Treasury, Juan Bravo, has called them a "legislative and legal botch" and has questioned whether they will increase supply. The spokesperson for the far-right party, Pepa Millán, has labeled them a "scam". Their opposing votes, combined with those of the PNV on the second decree, prevent the rental reform from prospering with the current arithmetic.
Two decrees with different consequences for tenants
The second decree was published this Thursday in the BOE and will come into force on Friday, the same day of its vote. It establishes successive renewals of five years, or seven years when the owner is a company, once the minimum contract duration has been met and if neither party communicates its intention to terminate it. The landlord who decides not to renew must compensate the tenant with at least twelve months' rent for a comparable dwelling, except for the exceptions included in the norm.
The first decree, in force since this Thursday, brings together protection against certain evictions of vulnerable households until 2030, extraordinary extensions of up to two years for contracts that meet the requirements, and measures on temporary and room rentals. It also incorporates tax incentives and restrictions on certain speculative purchases. Its approval would preserve these measures even if Congress rejected automatic renewal.
The separation allows voting on the main package without its continuity depending on accepting the deeper reform of contracts. For tenant unions, losing the second decree means giving up one of their main demands, because the temporary extension postpones the expiration while successive renewal offers more lasting continuity. Rodríguez has proposed recovering that reform through a legislative initiative if it does not prosper this Friday, a path that would require another parliamentary negotiation.
The spokesperson for the Tenants' Union, Alicia del Río, asked this Thursday that deputies abandon "partisan calculations" and approve both texts. The organization demands stability so that families can remain in their homes and maintain their life in the neighborhood, a demand that once again places automatic renewal at the center of pressure on Congress.
The encampment in Puerta del Sol continues and the unions have called caceroladas for this Thursday at 8:00 p.m., in front of city halls in Madrid and Catalonia and from balconies in the rest of the country. They also maintain the demonstrations on Saturday, regardless of the outcome of the vote.
In Friday's plenary session, Isabel Rodríguez will defend the first decree and Pablo Bustinduy will present the second. Deputies will vote on each norm separately.
