The early election announced by Pedro Sánchez for next November 29 has not altered the balance of power reflected in the polls prior to the call. The first survey published after the decision of the President of the Government places the PP and Vox in a position to achieve an absolute majority in Congress, while the progressive bloc remains far from the necessary support to facilitate a new investiture of the socialist leader.
The 40dB. study, prepared for 'El País' and 'Cadena SER', based on 800 online interviews conducted between Wednesday and Thursday after the election announcement, grants both right-wing parties 50.8% of the estimated vote. Their joint representation would range between 186 and 214 deputies, above the 176 seats needed to obtain an absolute majority in the Lower House.
The main increase corresponds to Vox, which could double its parliamentary representation compared to the general elections of July 2023. Santiago Abascal's party would reach 18.9% of the votes, five tenths more than in the previous poll and 6.5 points above its result in the last general elections. The projection attributes between 63 and 74 deputies to it, compared to the 33 it obtained three years ago.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP continues in first position, with 31.9% of the estimated votes. However, the result remains 1.2 points below that registered by the popular party in July 2023. The range of seats is between 123 and 140, compared to the current 137.
For its part, the PSOE experiences a slight rebound to 28.1%, seven tenths more than in the previous survey. Despite this recovery, the socialists would still be 3.6 points short of their last electoral result and would obtain between 105 and 117 deputies, below the 121 they achieved in 2023.
Vox capitalizes on the growth of the right and could double its seats
Santiago Abascal's party is the party that grows the most compared to the 2023 general elections. Its estimated vote reaches 18.9%, just over one point from 20%, and its representation could be between 63 and 74 deputies. If the forecast is met, Vox would obtain between 30 and 41 more seats than in the last general elections.
In the distribution of deputies, the sum of the lowest ranges of PP and Vox would reach 186 seats. If both parties were to be at the high end of their estimates, they would reach 214 deputies. Even taking the midpoints of their respective ranges as a reference, they would gather around 198 representatives, according to calculations derived from the demoscopic study.
The fragmentation of the left makes it difficult for the progressive bloc to recover
The main weakness of the progressive space is to the left of the PSOE, where the formations preparing a new electoral articulation continue to lose support. The survey attributes 5.3% to the forces coming from Sumar, which would run under the name of Frente Amplio, and 2.3% to Podemos, led by Irene Montero as a candidate.
Separately, both options would add up to 7.6% of the votes, well below the 12.3% that the Sumar coalition achieved in the 2023 elections. The seat estimate reflects the setback: the space heir to Sumar would obtain between five and seven deputies, while Podemos would achieve two.
The sum of PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would be around 35.7% of the votes, compared to 52.6% that PP, Vox, and Se Acabó la Fiesta would gather. This difference leaves the progressive bloc in an unfavorable position to attempt a new investiture of Sánchez, even if it managed to get the support of nationalist and independentist formations.
The study, however, proposes an alternative scenario in case Podemos were to integrate into the Frente Amplio. In that case, the alternative left would raise its estimate from 7.6% to 9.5% and would obtain between 15 and 19 deputies. Unity would allow reducing the losses of representation compared to a fragmented candidacy, although it would not return the space to its 2023 results.
Integration would also modify the ranges of the other parties. With a Frente Amplio that incorporated Podemos, the PP would obtain between 119 and 134 seats; the PSOE, between 102 and 112; and Vox, between 63 and 72. Despite the changes in the parliamentary distribution, the two main right-wing formations would retain an absolute majority even at the lower end of their estimates.
Together, the first poll after Sánchez's announcement draws a campaign in which the PSOE recovers some of the lost ground, but without altering the PP's leadership or Vox's growth. Pending the evolution of upcoming surveys and the effect of the pre-campaign, 40dB.'s projection keeps the right above the absolute majority and places the unity of forces to the left of the PSOE as one of the factors that could modify the distribution of seats.
