Frente Amplio Por Andalucía is born without Podemos and the alternative left is heading towards three separate lists in the region for 29N

Izquierda Unida, Movimiento Sumar, Iniciativa del Pueblo Andaluz and Verdes Equo announced this Friday that they will run in the general elections on November 29 under the name Frente Amplio Por Andalucía, without Podemos. The agreement comes just hours before the deadline to communicate coalitions and aggravates the division of a space that had managed to bring these organizations together in the regional elections in May.

The announcement brings Andalusia closer to three candidacies to the left of the PSOE. Adelante Andalucía has already presented its top candidates in the eight provinces and Podemos remains outside the agreement announced by its previous partners. If the purples confirm that they are running separately, that electorate will have three ballots among which to divide their vote, with the risk of losing representation in Congress.

Territorial negotiation is blocked

Podemos Andalucía maintains that it had been three days requesting an urgent meeting of the Por Andalucía party table to agree on a joint candidacy. According to the organization, the response was negative, despite the fact that its willingness to negotiate had been communicated directly and expressed publicly. This Thursday, its spokesperson, Alejandra Durán, had warned on social media that "we cannot allow possible disagreements in Madrid or Barcelona to prevent unity in Andalusia".

The federal coordinator of IU and parliamentary spokesperson for Por Andalucía, Antonio Maíllo, has defended a negotiation within the state Broad Front and has rejected "chopped" agreements. "We tell Podemos to join the Broad Front, but to sit down," he affirmed this Thursday. The disagreement over the negotiation framework has prevented a territorial formula from being transferred to Andalusia, unlike those that have allowed Podemos to join in the Canary Islands and the Valencian Community.

The fracture affects parties that shared a candidacy last May 17. Then, Por Andalucía grouped IU, Podemos, Movimiento Sumar, Iniciativa del Pueblo Andaluz, Verdes Equo, Alternativa Republicana and Alianza Verde. Now, the four signatory organizations present their agreement as the result of "dialogue, generosity and responsibility," but the announced alliance has a narrower perimeter than that of May. The autonomous collaboration has not been enough to resolve their differences ahead of the general elections.

The seats at stake

The closest precedent in a general election allows us to measure the importance of understanding. In July 2023, Sumar obtained six deputies in Andalusia with Podemos and IU within the same candidacy. Two corresponded to Seville and the other four were distributed among Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada and Málaga. The coalition was left without representation in Almería, Huelva and Jaén.

This result shows the difficulty of competing with several lists for a limited electoral space. The votes of different candidacies are not added to distribute the deputies of each province. The law requires a minimum of 3% of valid votes to participate in that distribution, although exceeding that percentage does not guarantee a seat. Dividing support can leave several lists below the necessary level and make it easier for other forces to gain representation with the same votes.

Adelante Andalucía has decided to maintain its own candidacy and this Friday announced seven women and one man as head of list, without prior institutional experience. Among them are María Sánchez for Cádiz, Ana Jiménez for Málaga and Luis de los Santos for Seville, the three provinces where its spokesperson, José Ignacio García, places his main expectations of obtaining representation. García has accused the forces negotiating the Broad Front of generating "weariness and exhaustion" and aims to attract disappointed voters and those who planned to abstain.

Its regional growth provides it with its own political base. In May, Adelante Andalucía obtained eight seats and Por Andalucía obtained five, while PP and Vox together accounted for 68 of the 109 deputies in Parliament. But Congress distributes fewer seats per province than the regional Chamber. The challenge for the three options will be to demonstrate that they can sufficiently expand the electorate to compensate for the dispersion, especially in those constituencies where the joint candidacy of 2023 only obtained one deputy.

The contrast of Canarias and Valencia

The pacts of Canarias and the Valencian Community have shown that differences between organizations can be resolved through agreements adapted to each territory. Podemos and IU will share a candidacy in both communities, along with other forces, under the brands Unidad del Pueblo Canario and Compromís-Front Valencià. Pablo Iglesias has defended this path during negotiations and has called for flexibility, attention to territorial particularities, and the absence of impositions from Madrid.

The express consultation held this Friday by Podemos has supported with 87.7% of the votes the territorial agreements and the continuity of negotiations. Calls for unity have also emerged from within the party. The deputy for Murcia, Javier Sánchez Serna, has asked all organizations, including his own, to make an effort, and has warned that contributing to a PP and Vox Government through division would leave them discredited for years.

This Saturday's calls, meanwhile, point to separate agendas. Podemos will gather its Executive and the Broad Front will hold its presentation at 12:00 p.m. in the Auditorium of the Manzanares Linear Park, in Madrid. The new poster announces Colau, Delgado and Toni Valero, among other leaders, without Montero or Belarra. Also included are the Canarian and Valencian alliances that do include Podemos, a sign that territorial agreements coexist with the lack of state understanding.

The margin to modify the map of alliances ends at 11:59 p.m. this Friday, October 16. That is the deadline to communicate electoral coalitions; the presentation of the complete lists of candidates corresponds to a later phase, between October 21 and 26.