The PSOE faces with caution the regional elections of Castilla y León this Sunday, March 15. The internal data managed by the party point to a very tight scenario against the PP, with what they describe as a “technical tie,” although the final result could depend on just a few thousand votes and the distribution of the last seat in several provinces.
According to different socialist sources, the PSOE is moving in a range that oscillates between 26 and 30 procurators in the best of cases. It currently has 28 seats, so a slight improvement would be possible if the electoral remnants end up falling on its side in some key constituencies.
In practice, they recognize within the party, there are “three or four seats” still up in the air that could lean both towards the PSOE and towards the PP or even Vox. That small margin could completely change the political reading of election night: from confirming a new socialist fall after the bad results in Extremadura and Aragon, to allowing the socialists to resist in a community that historically has been very adverse for them and where the PP has governed for four decades.
In the party's federal leadership, in Ferraz, they consider that improving even minimally the current result could already be interpreted as an acceptable balance. However, within the PSOE there are also leaders who call for prudence and lower any expectations.
In their view, even in the most favorable scenario, the party would hardly have options to form a government, since everything indicates that the sum of the PP and Vox could reach a parliamentary majority. For that reason, several internal voices insist on avoiding triumphalist readings if the PSOE manages to contain the fall.
As an example, they cite what happened in the regional elections of last February 8 in Aragon, when Jorge Pueyo's Chunta Aragonesista enthusiastically celebrated obtaining six seats despite that result not preventing the joint majority of PP and Vox. In the PSOE, they want to avoid a similar situation marking the interpretation of the elections in Castilla y León.
