Colombia has woken up to a result that still needs to go through official scrutiny, but which has already activated all political alarms in Latin America. Abelardo de la Espriella, a criminal lawyer, businessman, and far-right candidate, leads Iván Cepeda in the pre-count by less than a point: 49.66% to 48.70%, a difference of about 250,000 votes in a second round with historic participation.
Institutional prudence has not reached Washington or the international right. Donald Trump celebrated the result on Truth Social in his usual style, while Marco Rubio has already called De la Espriella “president-elect” and promised collaboration on security, migration, and economy. Javier Milei, Santiago Abascal, and other leaders of the radical right have also joined the congratulations. In Spain, Alberto Núñez Feijóo followed the same line and called the result “good news” for Colombia and Hispanic America.
The Colombian left, however, does not consider the process closed. Cepeda has acknowledged the pre-count but reminded that it is not official or binding data and announced the challenge of 33,000 polling stations. Gustavo Petro has asked for “calm” and insisted that “no one can be proclaimed president” until the scrutiny is over. The Colombian system distinguishes between the pre-count on election night, which is quick and political, and the subsequent scrutiny, which has legal validity and reviews records, claims, and possible errors table by table.
The margin makes a reversal very difficult, but it also damages the narrative of an overwhelming victory that De la Espriella had tried to build during the campaign. More than half of the country did not vote for him if Cepeda's support, blank votes, null votes, and unmarked votes are added up. The candidate who promised a firm hand, ten mega-prisons, an end to Total Peace, and a “Miracle Homeland” arrives, if the result is confirmed, without a clear mandate to sweep away everything that came before.
The external data has been one of the keys. De la Espriella won strongly among Colombians outside the country, especially in the United States, where he has lived, has businesses, citizenship, and political ties with Trumpism. That connection helps explain the speed with which the White House has come out to support him. Colombia may be about to go from the first left-wing government in its recent history to an executive aligned with Trump, Milei, and Bukele. The official scrutiny is still pending, but the political battle has already begun.
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