The IMF warns of the war's blow in Iran to the global economy and keeps Spain as a European engine

The International Monetary Fund puts numbers to the new slowdown of the global economy just as Donald Trump once again adds fuel to the Middle East board. The organization lowers its global growth forecast for 2026 by one tenth, to 3%, and warns that a new escalation between the United States and Iran could translate into higher oil costs, more inflation, and less room for central banks.

The IMF update comes on the same day that Trump, from Ankara, declared the understanding with Tehran to try to end the war over. “I think it’s over,” said the US president, who claims he does not want to continue dealing with Iran after a new round of US attacks and after the impacts on several oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Fund’s economic calendar was already born with caution. With that phrase from Trump, it is born directly under threat.

The IMF report depicts a world economy split into two forces. On the one hand, the war in the Middle East pressures energy, makes raw materials more expensive, and complicates the fall in prices. On the other, artificial intelligence and technological investment sustain the countries most involved in that value chain. The result is weaker growth this year and a slightly better forecast for 2027, when the Fund expects global growth of 3.4%.

Inflation is the most serious warning. The IMF estimates that prices will rise by 4.7% globally in 2026, three tenths more than forecast in April, before moderating to 3.9% in 2027. The message is uncomfortable for governments and central banks: the disinflation process that had been coming since 2024 is getting stuck and oil once again has the last word.

The Fund’s hypothesis starts from a gradual normalization of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-July and a return to pre-war conditions by March 2027. It is a fragile assumption. If military tension grows, the channel will be fast: more expensive crude oil, pressure on food and transport, tighter supply chains, and tougher financial conditions.

The IMF also looks askance at technological enthusiasm. Artificial intelligence helps offset part of the blow, especially in economies with weight in semiconductors, digitalization, and business investment. But the organization leaves another warning on the table. If markets revise down AI profitability expectations, the correction can hit stock markets and investment hard.

Spain holds up above Europe, but the IMF does not buy all the Government's optimism

Spain fares better than its main European partners. The IMF maintains its forecast at 2.1% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, unchanged from April. The data places the Spanish economy clearly above the eurozone, which would grow only 0.9% this year, and also ahead of Germany, France, and Italy.

The comparison is clear. Germany would advance 0.7%, France 0.6%, and Italy 0.5% in 2026. Spain is not immune to the global cooling, but it retains more traction due to domestic demand, employment, household savings, and an energy structure less exposed than other economies to the gas and oil shock.

The Government manages a much more optimistic scenario. Carlos Cuerpo recently raised the official growth forecast to 2.6% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, within the macroeconomic framework that will accompany the next Budgets. Economy maintains that the impact of the war in Iran will be more limited than expected and that energy measures have cushioned part of the blow.

The IMF does not go that far. It recognizes Spanish strength, but maintains a more prudent reading. The organization highlights the good data from the first quarter and the role of renewables in the economy's resilience, although it also points out that risks remain tilted downwards. Clearly: Spain grows more than Europe, but does not live in a bubble.

The great risk for Moncloa is external. A sustained rise in oil can bite into consumption, business costs, and public accounts. It can also complicate the withdrawal of energy aid, one of the IMF's recurring recommendations, which calls for temporary, selective support directed only at the most vulnerable households.

The global picture leaves little room for triumphalism. The United States holds up better due to its energy position and technological investment, China improves to 4.6% in 2026, India remains soaring at 6.4%, and the Middle East and Central Asia suffer the biggest blow, with a projected growth of barely 0.7% this year.

The IMF does not speak of a global recession. It speaks of an economy that continues to advance with the brakes on, pending Hormuz, oil, and a Trump who has just broken the truce with Iran in the middle of the NATO summit. Spain maintains an advantage over Europe, but the price of energy will decide how long that cushion lasts.