"Let justice do justice." It is the brief response of the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, from China, and the same line that they convey today from La Moncloa to journalists.
The president's inner circle avoids making future hypotheses, but does verbalize a clear desire: that “the trial ultimately does not take place”. The decision now rests with the Provincial Court of Madrid, where the Executive places the next key point of the process.
In the Government they shy away from talking about concern, although in private some socialist deputies do admit the wear and tear that the decisions of judge Juan Carlos Peinado are causing. A tension that has transferred in recent hours to the political front, with strong reactions from several heavyweight ministers such as Félix Bolaños or Óscar Puente, also visible in the government control session.
"I am going to denounce any injustice I see," Bolaños responded to the PP spokesperson, Ester Muñoz, who accused the minister of being "the only Justice minister in the European Union who attacks the highest judicial power" and compared him to the model of the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Bolaños replied that "criticizing a judicial resolution or denouncing irregularities of a judge does not affect judicial independence."
Without crossing of red lines nor electoral scenario
La Moncloa vindicates the “use of freedom of expression” against a Popular Party that considers that the prosecution of the president's wife places the Government in an unsustainable position.
In the Executive they maintain that “no crime is supported by evidence” and they trust that the development of the process will end up redirecting the situation. Furthermore, they believe that their electorate interprets the case as part of a political persecution against Sánchez and his circle, which leads them to rule out, at least for now, a electoral impact significant.
The president keeps his roadmap intact: to exhaust the legislature until 2027. In La Moncloa they insist that the political calendar is not altered by the judicial procedure. In any case, from the political analysis an unwritten maxim is assumed: no Government announces an early election until the decision is made. That is to say, stability is proclaimed… until it ceases to be so.
A judicial process that marks the political times
Judge Juan Carlos Peinado has concluded the investigation phase while also requesting new proceedings, a decision that generates legal doubts and that could be corrected by higher instances.
Furthermore, it has granted five days to the accusations to request the opening of oral trial and present their writings, leaving Begoña Gómez one step away from the bench.
The next key move will come from the Provincial Court of Madrid, which must rule on the next steps of the procedure. Everything indicates that, if held, the trial would not take place this year and could fall to a popular jury.
The professor of Constitutional Law at the University of Seville, Joaquín Urías, believes it is “difficult to calculate when the trial will be held,” although he sees it as “complicated for it to be this year.” In his opinion, “legally the case is very weak,” based on “presumptions rather than a solid investigation”: “the judge deduces, but does not provide conclusive evidence.”
Powers in tension
The dividing line between the judicial, executive and legislative powers becomes tense again. The closing of the investigation by Peinado conditions the political framework in which the Government tries to move.
Awaiting the next judicial decisions, Sánchez's team prepares to maintain the political confrontation. On the horizon, furthermore, the recent precedent of judicial decisions weighs, such as the case of former prosecutor Álvaro García Ortiz which ended up having criminal consequences.