Sánchez's partners already take for granted an early election at the beginning of 2027

In politics, as in life, many circumstances that a priori seem contradictory can concur on the same plane. The crisis in Ceuta —a before and after of the XV legislature— has exposed the weakness of an increasingly isolated Government that, however, has the advantage of knowing that there is no programmatic alternative.

“My intention is to exhaust the legislature”. This is one of the headlines that the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, left in his first interview on Cadena SER after the summer break. However, some of the partners who helped him to power, and who are increasingly distant from the Government's position, do not believe him.

PNV sources in Euskadi explain that, in their opinion, the date of the next general elections has been decided for some time. They add that the situation in Ceuta provides a new element that further justifies that the appointment with the polls be at the beginning of 2027.

Podemos has the same hypothesis on the table, whose thesis points to an early election in the first months of the year. The purple party's disengagement has been occurring for many months, positioning itself on most occasions in opposition to the Government. What happened in the autonomous city has again placed them very far from the Executive's management, a pretext that has served the general secretary of Podemos, Ione Belarra, to demand the rupture of relations with Morocco, condition the negotiation of the General State Budgets —which, according to La Moncloa, are still being negotiated— and point out that the socialist Government “is digging its own grave”.

From EH Bildu, although they are not so clear about that hypothesis, they do believe that the situation in Ceuta has set a new course “that no one knows where the legislature will lead”.

Sánchez, in crisis, maintains his agenda

The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, will preside this Monday over the interparliamentary meeting of the Socialist Parliamentary Group, which will be held in the Congress of Deputies on the occasion of the beginning of the ordinary session period in the Chambers.

According to sources from the socialist leadership, the general secretary will ask for “unity” against the right-wing parties and will call for continuing to govern until the legislature is exhausted.

In the socialist bench, which publicly supports its leader, there are deputies who recognize that the situation has become “very complicated”, but they consider that it is not time to “cede ground” to the right and the far-right.

How long can Sánchez continue to govern?

While parliamentary partners see an early election as increasingly feasible, the president insists on denying it. The prerogative belongs solely and exclusively to Sánchez, who, like other presidents in a democracy, will not press the button until the moment that politically suits him best. Meanwhile, he will deny that he is going to do it.

What is clear is what the limit of the current legislature would be. The Constitution establishes that the mandate of the Congress lasts four years from the election of the deputies, unless the Chamber is dissolved earlier. If there were no early election, that period would place the end of the mandate on July 23, 2027.

From there, the LOREG sets the deadlines for calling elections: it must be done 25 days before the mandate of the Cortes expires, and the elections must be held 54 days after the call. With these deadlines, the deadline for holding elections would be August 22, 2027.