The Government begins to make a move in view of the possible economic consequences of the war in Iran. With concrete measures on the table that they have not yet detailed, the Executive has initiated contacts with parliamentary groups to explore support for a future anti-crisis package inspired by the one it deployed in 2022 after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
The first calls have already taken place. The person in charge of making them is the Minister of the Presidency, Félix Bolaños, who has initiated a round of telephone contacts with parliamentary spokespersons. This time, furthermore, the Executive has also included Vox on the list.
According to sources from several parties, the minister is conveying “the seriousness of the geopolitical situation” and requesting contributions from the groups, in a scheme similar to the one the Government used after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But not all conversations are anticipated simple.
On Bolaños' agenda there are two especially uncomfortable calls. The first is the one addressed to Vox, with whom political interlocution is practically non-existent. The second points to the Popular Party. From Alberto Núñez Feijóo's circle they do not confirm contacts for now, although they do hint that, if it occurs, it will not be the opposition leader himself who answers the call because “Bolaños is in charge of that matter,” sources from the popular leader's team indicate.
Meanwhile, the Government is also accelerating through the economic route.
Before the appearance scheduled for next day 25 in Congress —in which the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, will set the Executive's position on the war initiated by the United States and Israel— the Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, has rearranged his agenda to meet with the potentially affected sectors. Today he will do so with business representatives and tomorrow, as the Government expects to announce throughout the day, with employers and trade unions.
The objective is twofold: to measure the economic impact of the conflict and prepare the political ground for the measures that the Executive intends to take to Parliament.
Because, ultimately, the Government needs votes.
The initiatives that are finally presented must be validated in Congress, as already happened in March 2022 with the Royal Decree that launched the first package of economic and social response to the war in Ukraine. And the current parliamentary arithmetic does not precisely play in favor of La Moncloa.
Harmony yes, consensus… we'll see
“We all have the same interest: the well-being of citizens”.
With that message, the Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, tried to strike a conciliatory tone during an interview on La Hora de la 1 on TVE. The Government is now seeking a political climate that allows to build majorities that it does not have secured today.
For now, almost all parties are willing to talk. A very different thing will be to agree on the measures.
The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has accused the Government of having “lost the opportunity to approve real measures”. Against that reproach, President Pedro Sánchez recently responded in an interview on eldiario.es that “Feijóo and Abascal say ‘no to everything’, except to war”.
An exchange of reproaches that anticipates the difficulty of any parliamentary agreement.
The Executive still has very recent the precedent from late February, when it suffered a double defeat in Congress. PP, Vox, Junts and UPN then added 177 votes to overturn the so-called social shield. The main point of friction was the extension of the prohibition to evict vulnerable people without a housing alternative.
The decree promoted by Minister Pablo Bustinduy to limit abusive price increases in emergency situations also fell. Exactly the type of scenario that is now hovering over the European economy again and that would have allowed capping prices.
In the midst of that political struggle, the Government tries to open a path of understanding.
Cuerpo has recalled that “several of the measures that the PP has proposed were already previously approved by the Government” and has expressed his confidence in “being able to articulate measures that gather the greatest possible support”.
The populars, for their part, are preparing their own movement. The parliamentary group will register a non-legislative proposal with its own recipes to alleviate the economic effects derived from the conflict.
The great unknown is the calendar.
Will the Government arrive at Sánchez's appearance on the 25th with an already defined plan?
Or will consensus run aground again in Congress?
It would not be the first time.
In 2022, with the war in Ukraine as a backdrop, Sánchez already warned about the scope of those measures: “They will have a cost and will demand sacrifices”.
The difference now is that the Government is confident that, after that experience, the country is better prepared to face a new crisis.