The judicial agenda conditions the Government's strategy: La Moncloa prepares different scenarios for a decisive week

“No hay tregua”. This is the title of one of the most well-known songs by the rock band Barricada, which has become a symbol of resistance against adversity. Although the social and political context in which it was composed, in the 1980s, has little to do with Spain in 2026, its name quite accurately summarizes the political and judicial moment the Government is going through.

With the president, Pedro Sánchez, back at La Moncloa Palace after the NATO summit in Ankara —marked by Donald Trump's bravado— and after fulfilling family commitments, such as the graduation of one of his daughters in the United Kingdom, which was the subject of what the president's circle describes as alleged “nauseating journalism,” the Executive faces a new week starting this Monday, almost completely dominated by the judicial agenda.

At La Moncloa, for now, they maintain practically the same thesis that Sánchez defended at the end of June during his appearance in the Congress of Deputies. Then, the president acknowledged that the storm was far from over and tried to prepare his people for what was to come. “There will be more drip-feed of news, the right will sell it as a sign of political degradation, but this already happened; what we are going to observe now is their persecution,” he anticipated before the socialist parliamentary group.

Just a few days after those words, the scenario seems to confirm the diagnosis made by the president himself. The judicial cases continue to advance and decisions accumulate. As an example, this very week Judge Santiago Pedraz has charged Juanma Serrano, former Chief of Staff of Pedro Sánchez and former president of Correos, in the so-called Leire Díez case. The magistrate has also authorized the analysis of his mobile phone, after the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office requested both his indictment and the data dump of the terminal as part of the investigation into the alleged plot aimed at destabilizing judicial procedures affecting the PSOE or the Government. A judicial move that once again puts the spotlight on the socialist environment and anticipates the intensity of days in which the courts' agenda threatens to overshadow politics again.

A torrid summer with no judicial respite

A quick glance at the calendar is enough to understand why the Executive faces the coming days with maximum caution.

On Monday, Judge Santiago Pedraz will take testimony from José Aníbal Álvarez, former lawyer for José Luis Ábalos, to clarify who paid the defense fees of the former minister.

Tuesday will be the turn of lawyer Leticia de la Hoz, defender of former ministerial advisor Koldo García, who will appear as an investigated party before the same magistrate in the so-called Leire case, after businesswoman Carmen Pano accused her of an alleged attempt at bribery, an accusation that the lawyer already publicly rejected through a statement.

On Wednesday, the president of the PSOE, Cristina Narbona, will appear, who, after a postponement for personal reasons, must explain in court the messages she exchanged with the alleged socialist "fixer" on the same day that Pedro Sánchez published his well-known "Letter to the citizenry." Sources from the socialist leadership assure that Narbona "is calm and eager to explain herself."

Thursday will be the turn of the Director General of the Civil Guard, Mercedes González, and the Deputy Operational Director (DAO) of the Armed Institute, Manuel Llamas. Both have been summoned by Judge Pedraz for alleged crimes of malfeasance and obstruction of justice. This is an appearance with evident political significance, especially after the Director General denied ever having met "never" with the alleged PSOE "fixer," Leire Díez, a statement she later had to rectify.

Sánchez's family circle, awaiting two key decisions

One of the moments of greatest political impact could come with the ruling, expected in the coming days, on the procedure affecting the brother of the President of the Government, David Sánchez.

At La Moncloa, they are working with two scenarios: an acquittal or a conviction. It is this second scenario that most concerns the presidential circle, which is already preparing a communication strategy to minimize the political impact if a conviction finally occurs.

The objective is to contain the wear and tear as much as possible at a time when a good part of the judicial procedures with the greatest public repercussion point, in one way or another, to the PSOE's inner circle.

In parallel, the Provincial Court of Madrid must begin to deliberate on the appeals filed in the case affecting Begoña Gómez against different decisions adopted during the investigation led by judge Juan Carlos Peinado. The five magistrates of Section 23 will begin to study these appeals, which could be decisive from both a procedural and political point of view. Not in vain, during the investigation, the Court has already corrected the magistrate's decisions on numerous occasions, annulling part of his actions.

A week that could set the political course

No matter how much La Moncloa and Ferraz insist on conveying “calm” and have been preparing different scenarios for weeks depending on each resolution, the accumulated wear and tear is beginning to become evident among socialist ranks. The summer break in August will offer a brief respite, but it will hardly serve to clear the uncertainty.

Many PSOE leaders consulted by this media privately admit that the coming days could become a turning point. Not so much because of the volume of open cases, but because some of the decisions that are about to be known have the capacity to alter the political scenario, condition the Government's strategy during the next term and, even, mark the room for maneuver with which Pedro Sánchez will face the beginning of the new political cycle.