Can foreign policy become the main political asset of a president with the legislature stalled? In Moncloa they believe so.
Behind the latest moves of Pedro Sánchez there is no improvisation, but strategy. Several circumstances have allowed his team to design its own, resounding and unwavering profile on the international stage.
The first is demoscopic. With the polls in hand, the diagnosis in the Government is clear: “Spain is a pacifist country”. Although there are still no conclusive studies on public opinion regarding the latest attacks by US and Israel in the Middle East, in the Executive they are convinced that Sánchez's position connects with the grassroots and the social majority. The precedent that always looms is 2003 and the massive rejection of the Iraq war. That memory continues to be part of the political DNA of a significant part of the electorate.
The second is internal. After the latest parliamentary defeats and with key social shield measures decaying due to lack of support —leaving thousands of families in a vulnerable situation— the Government needs to project initiative. The arithmetic in Congress limits domestic action; foreign policy, on the other hand, offers a broader and less conditioned playing field.
The investiture majority is going through its moment most fragile. With Junts hardening positions and voting alongside PP and Vox, the legislative margin is minimal. Nor does it seem viable to meet the announced calendar for presenting the Budgets in the first quarter. In private, several ministers admit that this objective, as of today, is not realistic.
In that context, foreign policy becomes a lever. It serves to mark an international profile, but also to test the internal mobilization capacity of an electorate that polls describe as unmotivated. The confrontation with Donald Trump provides a recognizable antagonist and a clear narrative framework.
And there enters the underlying question: can Trump become, indirectly, the factor that reactivates Sánchez?
Sánchez versus Trump: a pattern that repeats
Is Pedro Sánchez the main European figure of opposition to Donald Trump's policies? At Moncloa, they already consider that narrative good and are willing to exploit it.
While neither the United Kingdom, nor France, nor Germany —the great European powers— have publicly broken with the latest maneuvers by the United States and Israel in the Middle East, Spain has indeed done so. The Spanish president has distanced himself where others have opted for diplomatic prudence.
History seems to repeat itself.
Months ago, the American president decided to break away from mechanisms that have traditionally guided the Western response in foreign policy. Sánchez's reaction was clear: not to pay homage. “We maintain the usual position in the face of this type of conflicts,” sources from Moncloa insist.
In January, after the military operation that ended with the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, Sánchez assured that “Spain will not recognize this violation of international law.” Nor did he endorse the results of the elections of July 28, 2024, in which Maduro proclaimed himself winner.
In February, in another register but with the same firmness, the clash was with some of the most influential tech giants on the planet. From Dubai, Sánchez announced that Spain will prohibit access to social media for minors under 16 to curb the “digital Wild West”. Elon Musk called him on X a “tyrant and traitor”. Pavel Durov, founder of Telegram, warned his users in Spain that these measures threatened freedom of expression. Sánchez did not back down.
Added to this is his commitment to the regularization of migrants and the op-ed he dedicated to the matter in The New York Times, where he defended his model and contrasted it, without expressly citing it, with that of the American president.
Now, with the explicit condemnation of the attacks by the U.S. and Israel and the new diplomatic pulse opened, the pattern is reactivated: own profile, calculated confrontation and international projection.
The doubt is whether this strategy is only a way to differentiate itself abroad or, above all, a way to reorder the internal board.