Zapatero's appearance, "decisive" for the Government's communication strategy, which hopes to curb the pressure from the Popular Party

In ten days, on June 24, the President of the Government will appear before the Congress of Deputies to "report on the political situation" following the alleged corruption cases affecting the Executive and its closest circle.

He will do so after the European Council of the previous week and, above all, once several relevant events have taken place: the statement of his wife, Begoña Gómez, in the Plaza de Castilla courts; the appearance of the Director General of the Civil Guard, Mercedes González, in a Senate committee; and the statement of former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero before the National Court.

By then, moreover, the sentence of the so-called Masks case could be known and, with it, the decision on the judicial future of the former Secretary of Organization of the PSOE, José Luis Ábalos.

Two unknowns hover over the president's appearance. The first has to do with the content of his intervention: can any relevant news be expected? The second is of a political nature: will what Sánchez says serve to alter the current scenario?

At La Moncloa, work is underway on an intervention in which the president will insist that the investigated cases are unrelated to his actions, will defend that the PSOE has acted forcefully when evidence affecting its acronym has appeared and, presumably, will maintain part of the argumentative line sustained in recent days by several ministers, including Óscar López, regarding the role of some judges in the current political confrontation.

What Zapatero declares will be "decisive"

At the socialist headquarters, they acknowledge that they are awaiting with attention the explanations that the former president may offer to the magistrate. "He must explain everything down to the last detail," agree mid-level party officials in different federations, concerned that the reputational damage could become "irreparable."

The Ferraz leadership maintains that it does not have direct contact with Zapatero in relation to his upcoming appearance. The situation is different at La Moncloa, where there is a line of communication with his circle. However, socialist sources admit that they also expect to learn the details of matters that have generated enormous internal commotion during that statement.

This is an appearance considered key because it will largely condition the arguments that the Prime Minister can subsequently deploy. Until now, both the Executive and the PSOE have maintained a closed public defense strategy. However, it will be the judge who determines whether to keep the current lines of investigation open, agree on new proceedings, or modify the course of a procedure that is still in an initial phase.

If Zapatero's explanations convince the magistrate and political and media pressure begins to decrease, the Government will gain some oxygen. On the other hand, if after the appearance any judicial decision increases pressure on the Executive, it will be much more difficult for Sánchez to build a discourse capable of fulfilling his two main objectives: reassuring his parliamentary partners and deactivating the opposition's offensive.

Among the matters of greatest public interest —and especially judicial— is the rescue of Plus Ultra worth 53 million euros, granted by the State Society of Industrial Participations (SEPI) in 2021.

The other major issue is the origin of the jewels seized during the search and valued at 1.3 million euros, according to the preliminary appraisal received by the court. A discovery that has led the magistrate to open a separate case to investigate Zapatero for alleged tax and smuggling offenses.

The PP has already issued a political sentence

Meanwhile, the Popular Party has launched the website latramapsoe.es, a portal that compiles information on various judicial cases affecting people linked to the PSOE and the Prime Minister's circle.

According to Génova, the objective is to "help citizens understand" the different open procedures affecting Sánchez's political environment.

The initiative is part of the opposition strategy designed by Alberto Núñez Feijóo to maintain pressure on the Executive at a particularly delicate moment for the socialists.

The future of the PSOE

Three days after Sánchez's appearance, on Saturday, June 27, the PSOE will hold a Federal Committee, the party's highest body between congresses.

The meeting acquires extraordinary relevance due to the political context in which it takes place. The Federal Committee has not met for a year and the last meeting was marked by the impact of the Koldo case, which monopolized a good part of the internal debates.

On this occasion, the socialist leadership faces the meeting with the need to transmit internal cohesion and strength in the face of the growing fear of many leaders, in the midst of one of the stages of greatest wear and tear for the party since Sánchez's arrival at La Moncloa.