The Ceuta crisis takes its toll on the PSOE: Tezanos' CIS points to a drop of 2 votes but keeps it as the most voted force against the PP

The migratory crisis in Ceuta after the massive entry of more than 70,000 people into the autonomous city has already shown the consequences for the PSOE's confidence. In this sense, if general elections were held today, the socialists would remain, according to the latest barometer from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) of José Félix Tezanos, as the most voted force. However, it would suffer a two-point drop compared to July. 

On the other hand, the Popular Party of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, would remain as the second force and the far-right Vox of Santiago Abascal would consolidate with a third place with the largest growth of the month. On the left, Sumar hits rock bottom and Podemos accelerates its comeback. 

For its part, Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF) obtains 1.8%, below the figure recorded in the previous barometer. The result keeps Alvise Pérez's party above several territorial parties, although still far from the main state-level forces.

Among the Basque parties, EH Bildu experiences an advance of around half a point, up to 1.3%, while the PNV remains at 0.7%. ERC retains 2.5% and Junts is also at 0.7%, as is the BNG. Overall, these are small percentages compared to the main state formations, but they are relevant due to their possible weight in the parliamentary composition.

The fieldwork was carried out between September 1 and 4, with 4,042 interviews, when border management and the massive arrival of migrants had already gained significant weight in the political debate.

The results point to a two-point setback for the PSOE, although Pedro Sánchez's party retains the first position. The PP, for its part, manages to contain the fall and slightly narrows the gap, but without fully taking advantage of the socialists' wear and tear. Vox appears as the main beneficiary, with an increase of more than one point that allows it to consolidate as the third force, in a context marked by the debate on immigration, borders, and security.

On the left, the barometer reflects greater fragmentation of the space to the left of the PSOE. Sumar hits rock bottom, while Podemos advances and approaches 3.7%, narrowing the distance between both formations. The poll thus draws a scenario in which the PSOE maintains leadership despite the decline, while PP and Vox evolve unevenly and the struggle within the left gains weight.