The relations are broken. As of today there is no interlocution between the Government of Pedro Sánchez and Junts.
“What democratic argument does he have left not to call elections?”. This is the phrase that Miriam Nogueras, spokesperson for Junts in Congress, addressed to Pedro Sánchez last Wednesday during the government control session, in a new demonstration —faithful to the style of Puigdemont's people— that, for now, nothing has changed.
However, and despite assuming that they do not have the seven pro-independence votes for the upcoming votes, in the Executive they "do not fear" a motion of no confidence that at different times has loomed over the political debate.
It is worth remembering that the same votes that in November 2023 allowed the investiture of Pedro Sánchez could today cause his fall. But the Catalan formation does not contemplate "gifting" that scenario to the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
Nogueras herself maintains that the PSOE "systematically breaks its word" and that Sánchez "is not trustworthy", which, in her opinion, explains the total breakdown of relations. Even so, neither would an eventual PP government with VOX fit into Junts' strategic interests.
Recompose after the summer
Sources of the highest solvency of the PSOE consulted by ElConstitucional position a change of course starting from the next political year —the last of the legislature—, with the TJUE's sentence on the amnesty and the pronouncement of the Constitutional Court on the table. Both resolutions, they assure, could endorse the return of Carles Puigdemont to Spain in line with the European criterion.
With Puigdemont back, explain these sources, the scenario would be “completely different”. The former president would recover his institutional status, with the necessary resources and political projection to operate from Catalonia, thus culminating the objective he has pursued since his departure to Brussels in October 2017.
In that context, the Government foresees fostering a face-to-face meeting between Sánchez and Puigdemont to reestablish relations with Junts, today broken. In La Moncloa they also trust in being able to politically capitalize on the decisions adopted: the amnesty law, key to facilitate the return, or the advances in linguistic matters, one of Junts' main demands.
From there, the Executive expects that the relationship returns to a logic of pragmatism and that the independence party abandons the systematic blockade that, at this moment, is translating into parliamentary defeats for the Government.
For now, Junts is once again decisive
Before parliamentary courtesy reduces activity in Congress due to the Andalusian electoral cycle —during the first two weeks of May there will be no plenary session—, the Chamber will again show a reality: the right-wing parties add up to more. At least for now.
The plenary will predictably repeal this Tuesday the decree-law promoted by Sumar that allows extending for two years rental contracts expiring between March 21, 2026, and December 31, 2027, in addition to limiting annual rent updates to 2%. Junts has reiterated its rejection, aligning with PP and VOX, who have not even opened the door to negotiate the text.
Sources from the Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and Agenda 2030 confirm that it will be minister Pablo Bustinduy who defends the decree.
To this foreseeable defeat is added the uncertainty about the ERC initiative to create an investment consortium for Catalonia, agreed with the Government of Salvador Illa. The support to initiate its processing is not guaranteed. The body, designed to activate projects and ensure that the execution of state investment in Catalonia exceeds 90%, also does not have the approval of Junts.
Thus, once again, Junts squeezes but does not choke. It does not facilitate, but it does not bring down either. An unstable equilibrium that today blocks the Government, but which in La Moncloa they consider transitory: the strategic bet goes through the judicial summer. If the script handled by the consulted sources is fulfilled, politics will move again in autumn. And with it, the majorities.