The Frente Amplio reaches the weekend without closing its candidacy for the general elections on November 29. Ada Colau maintains the greatest internal support to lead the project, but conversations are still pending to resolve the incorporation of Podemos and the distribution of the lists, especially that of Madrid. At this hour on Friday, the leadership is not expected to be announced over the weekend, according to internal sources confirmed to 'ElConstitucional.es'.
The former mayor of Barcelona retains an important role in the rapprochement between organizations that have been accumulating differences for years. As we have learned in this newspaper, Colau, Irene Montero and Gabriel Rufián maintain continuous contacts, in a negotiation that combines conversations between the leaderships and personal relationships between their protagonists. These contacts must still translate into agreements on candidacies, the procedure for electing them, and the functioning of the alliance.
Movimiento Sumar intervened this Friday with a call to "sit down to dialogue and cooperate with discretion and generosity". The party demands a project where everyone fits and decisions are made jointly, after several days in which public proposals on names and positions have raised tension among partners. There is one week left to register electoral coalitions.
Madrid concentrates the dispute with the blockade of Más Madrid
The Madrid list continues to be the main obstacle to the agreement. Más Madrid proposes that Colau be the candidate for the Presidency of the Government from Barcelona and that Mónica García head the ballot in the capital. The organization also demands four of the first five positions on that list, a claim difficult to reconcile with the presence of the other forces and a possible incorporation of Podemos.
Más Madrid argues that its presence in the region must have a decisive weight in the candidacy. Its partners question whether that argument justifies such a distribution. The dispute affects the few positions with possibilities of becoming seats, at a time when polls anticipate a much smaller representation than that obtained by the joint Sumar candidacy in 2023.
Barcelona is part of Más Madrid's proposal for Colau, although the constituency for which the former mayor would run remains open. In the conversations, it has also been suggested that she lead Madrid, an option supported by IU that clashes with the aspirations of García's party. It is also not resolved where Montero would be located if there were finally a common candidacy. As we have learned in 'ElConstitucional.es', Irene Montero could also be on the Barcelona lists to avoid a clash with Mónica García's people.
Colau has linked her willingness to lead to the existence of a broad alliance, with Podemos and territorial organizations such as Compromís, Chunta Aragonesista or Més. "If we are all in, I will be too," she stated this Thursday. Her condition requires resolving the relationship with the purples before presenting a candidacy that aspires to represent the entire space.
Antonio Maíllo has described Colau as a "magnificent" candidate and has defended the incorporation of Podemos. "I hope Podemos is in the Broad Front. I am going to work to achieve the largest possible alliance," assured the federal coordinator of IU. The organization has, in turn, opened its internal primaries, to which Toni Valero has presented himself with the support of Maíllo.
Movimiento Sumar has chosen Verónica Martínez Barbero as its reference within the coalition, with 98% support. This election, like the IU process, corresponds to the representation of each organization and leaves shared leadership pending. This Friday's statement calls for resuming the discussion on housing, cost of living, minimum wage and climate change, issues that the parties want to take to the campaign while they continue negotiating their lists.
Podemos activates primaries and Rufián maintains the unknown
Podemos has launched the website to participate in its open primaries, with votes scheduled for October 14 and 15. The party maintains Irene Montero as its proposal and suggests that citizens can choose between the different projects. The calendar places the vote immediately before the last day to communicate the coalitions.
Montero has insisted that "Podemos will be on the list that comes out of those open primaries". Belarra has defended the same procedure and has invited candidates from other organizations to participate. "I think my organization's candidate is the best, which is Irene Montero, but the method Podemos proposes is open primaries, so people can decide," she explained this Thursday.
The procedure is one of the central issues of the negotiation. Podemos has also opened the possibility of agreeing on a list and then submitting it for ratification in primaries, a path reported this week by this media that would allow positions to be brought closer. That option is still pending an agreement on the candidacy and the conditions of the consultation.
The relationship between Colau and Montero facilitates conversations, although both maintain their public positions. Colau demands breadth and Podemos insists on the election method. The understanding between the two leaders needs the support of the organizations, in addition to a solution for the lists of Madrid and Barcelona, where a good part of the representation expectations are concentrated.
Added to this negotiation is the unknown of Gabriel Rufián. The republican spokesperson has reiterated that he wants to represent ERC, but "accompanied by other left-wing and anti-fascist forces, because this cannot be won alone". His approach opens the debate on a broader Catalan candidacy, while Oriol Junqueras's leadership maintains that he wants him to once again head the republican list.
ERC contemplates alternatives in case conversations end without agreement. Jordi Albert, deputy spokesperson in the Parliament and close to Junqueras, has begun to collect endorsements to be part of the candidacy, although this movement does not yet imply his designation as head of the list. Rufián has also not announced that he is leaving ERC or that he will run under another brand.
Belarra has again offered him collaboration. "We would love to team up with Gabriel", she affirmed, while expressing her respect for ERC and its internal debates. Montero will hold an event this Saturday in Getafe under the slogan "Peace, home and work", whose call Rufián has shared. The gesture keeps their political closeness visible, without confirming an electoral alliance.
Surveys raise the cost of division
Polls explain part of the pressure to reach an agreement. The DatosRTVE average, with data up to October 5, places Sumar at 6.3% and Podemos at 3.4%, with ten and three deputies, respectively. Both percentages add up to 9.7%, but this sum corresponds to the estimates of two separate candidacies and does not allow knowing how the electorate would respond to a coalition.
The 40dB. survey published this Friday does compare both scenarios. Separately, Sumar's space obtains 5.3% and Podemos 2.3%, with between seven and nine seats in total. With Podemos integrated, a Broad Front candidacy would reach 9.5% and between fifteen and nineteen deputies. The study was conducted through 800 interviews on October 7 and 8.
The joint candidacy improves the estimate in that poll, although it remains far from the 31 deputies and 12.3% that Sumar achieved with Podemos inside in 2023. The same survey maintains an absolute majority for PP and the far-right Vox even in the unity scenario. The challenge for the space includes recovering voters, mobilizing those who have distanced themselves, and presenting a project capable of disputing support during the campaign.
The provincial distribution of seats adds another difficulty. In small constituencies, dividing support can leave both candidacies without representation, even when their sum would have options to obtain a deputy. In Madrid and Barcelona, there are more seats at stake and more room to enter, which increases their importance in negotiations. A broad alliance also needs agreements in provinces where each position is more difficult to achieve.
Conversations are progressing at different speeds. Canarias and Baleares are working on candidacies with their own identity, while Compromís seeks to lead a Valencian alliance and Chunta defends a proposal of Aragonese obedience. The discussion affects both the names on the ballots and the autonomy of future deputies. In Andalusia, Adelante Andalucía maintains its intention to run separately.
The Senate has opened another negotiation, which may include the PSOE. The Senators for Democracy initiative promotes shared progressive candidacies, and the socialists are studying agreements in different territories to try to avoid a new absolute majority for the right in the Upper House. For now, these conversations remain to be finalized.
The calendar leaves two different deadlines. Coalitions must be communicated to the Electoral Board before the end of October 16, while complete candidacies can be submitted between the 21st and 26th. The Broad Front maintains its presentation event scheduled for the 17th.
