The far-right Vox wants to take advantage of the negotiation with the PP to secure its own parliamentary group in the Senate and gain prominence in Catalonia. These are the two main conditions that Santiago Abascal's party has put on the table to withdraw candidacies in provinces where they have little chance of obtaining representation and thus facilitate the concentration of the right-wing vote.
The far-right formation seeks compensation for stepping aside from elections in which it did not obtain any senator by direct election in July 2023. The agreement would allow the popular party to compete more strongly against the joint candidacies of the PSOE and its left-wing partners, while Vox aspires to leave the Mixed Group and obtain more political autonomy, funding, and personnel.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo confirmed this Friday on 'Cadena SER' that he spoke with Abascal last Wednesday and that conversations are ongoing. He also indicated that the possibility of the PP not running in some province has been on the table, although he described the information about a withdrawal in two constituencies as outdated. "Nothing is closed," he insisted, three days before the deadline to submit candidacies for November 29.
The electoral system explains the interest of both parties. In peninsular provincial constituencies, four senators are elected, and each voter can mark up to three candidates, even from different parties. The concentration of votes usually favors the most supported option getting three seats and the second, one. A withdrawal by Vox could benefit the PP in provinces disputed with the left, but the far-right wants to convert that help into more institutional power for their party.
Its own group would give Vox more money and autonomy with the help of the PP
The regulations require ten senators to form a parliamentary group, although it allows it to be maintained during the legislature as long as it keeps at least six. This difference opens the door to a temporary transfer of popular representatives so that Vox can reach the initial minimum and then continue with fewer members.
Those of Abascal now have three senators by autonomous community designation, two for Andalusia and one for Extremadura, after the cessation of the representatives of Aragon and the Valencian Community when the Chamber was dissolved. If they recovered those two positions and added another, they would reach six, which they could initially complete with four senators lent by the PP. It is one of the formulas of the negotiation, still pending an agreement and its subsequent parliamentary processing.
The economic gain would be concrete. According to the amounts published by the Senate for this legislature, each group receives a fixed part of 15,732 euros per month and another 1,966.50 euros per senator. A group of six members has 27,531 euros per month, equivalent to 330,372 euros per year. The far-right Vox would thus have its own structure to manage its resources and defend its positions, without sharing the organization of the Mixed Group with other forces.
The pact also affects the institutional balance. Reaching three-fifths of the Senate would allow the PP and Vox bloc to approve the proposals of four magistrates of the Constitutional Court without needing the votes of the PSOE, always within the legal election procedure. The Constitution reserves that proposal to the Upper House and requires that qualified majority. The negotiation on the lists can therefore condition decisions that go beyond the immediate distribution of seats.
Catalonia and Ceuta complicate the distribution demanded by Abascal
The territorial demand is more difficult for the PP. Vox wants the renunciations to be reciprocal and for the 'popular' to give it prominence where it believes it can compete better. Catalonia concentrates this dispute. The four Catalan provinces are the constituencies in which the PP has never obtained a senator by direct election. Girona is among the scenarios of a possible popular withdrawal, although it remains a hypothesis and the chances of getting a seat are reduced for both parties.
Ceding Barcelona would have a greater political cost for Feijóo, who has just placed Xavier García Albiol at the head of his candidacy for Congress for that province. PP and Vox also compete for the primacy of the right in Catalonia, where the ultras surpassed the popular party in the 2021 regional elections, with eleven deputies compared to three, and the PP overtook them in 2024, with fifteen compared to eleven. The absence of Aliança Catalana in the general elections adds a dispute for part of its electorate, without that vote being able to be automatically transferred to any formation.
The calculation changes in Murcia and Almería. If the PP came first and Vox second, as the scenarios handled in the negotiation suggest, both could share the four senators without withdrawing their candidacies, with three for the popular party and one for the ultras. Ceuta presents another difficulty, because the PP obtained both seats there in 2023 and an eventual cession to Vox would mean renouncing a position it already controls. Abascal's party did get a Ceuta senator in November 2019.
Abascal wants to reinforce his presence in Ceuta and has placed local leader Juan Sergio Redondo as number three on the list for Congress for Madrid. Vox's pressure on Juan Jesús Vivas includes that he break any understanding with the PSOE and pact with the far-right, despite the Ceuta president's fear of the consequences for coexistence. The relationship drags on the confrontation of 2021, when the PP's abstention allowed the Assembly to declare Abascal persona non grata after the border crisis of that year.
