The PSOE would be the leading force in the general elections on November 29, with 29.8% of the votes, compared to 29.1% for the PP, according to the first poll by La Séptima, prepared by SW Demoscopia. Javier Ruiz presented the data this Thursday in 'La Recta Final', 'La Última Hora's' election monitoring program. The measurement places the far-right Vox at 16%, more than six points below the maximum it reached last Saturday in the daily series.
"For now, there's a game," Ruiz said when showing the figures. Seven tenths separate socialists and popular in the vote estimate, a distance that requires cautious reading of the first place. The projection to Congress widens the difference to nine seats, with 126 for the PSOE and 117 for the PP. The sum of the popular and the 62 Vox deputies leaves, in turn, an absolute majority of 179, only three above the 176 needed.
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The PSOE recovers ground after Puente's resignation and the far-right Vox begins to fall
The daily direct voting intention chart shows how much the first position has moved in just one week. On Thursday, October 29, one day after the Urda train accident, the PP marked 33.3% and the PSOE 26.6%. On Tuesday, November 3, the popular party was again ahead, with 30.6% compared to 27.6% for the socialists. In the measurement on Wednesday 4, the day Óscar Puente resigned, the PSOE rises to 29.8% and the PP falls to 29.1%.
The sequence places the PSOE back in the lead in the latest available measurement after a difficult week for the Government. The change coincides with the change in Transport and the daily series, by itself, does not allow the rebound to be attributed to it. Previous clashes between both parties show how quickly the first position can change with such a small difference.
In the far-right Vox, the movement has been more sustained since Saturday. Santiago Abascal's party went from 22.1% on October 31 to 20.2% on Sunday, 18.5% on Monday, 17.1% on Tuesday, and 16% on Wednesday. That is 6.1 points less in four consecutive measurements. Even with that setback, the poll awards it 62 deputies, compared to the 33 it achieved in 2023. The weight of the far-right in a possible investiture of Feijóo would still be decisive, even in a week in which it loses support in the daily monitoring.
The majority is decided in the last seat
The distribution leaves Frente Amplio with 5% and 13 deputies, while Podemos obtains 1.3% and is left without seats. The projection assigns 11 to ERC, seven to EH Bildu, four to Junts, three to PNV, three to Adelante Andalucía, and two to BNG. Coalición Canaria and UPN would obtain one each.
If Coalición Canaria and UPN supported PP and Vox, that sum would go from 179 to 181. On the other side, the program grouped PSOE, Frente Amplio, ERC, EH Bildu, PNV, Adelante Andalucía, and BNG in a scenario of 165 seats, with Junts' four outside both sums. Even with Junts, that group would reach 169, seven short of an absolute majority in the first vote. The chart shows possible parliamentary supports and each would have to be negotiated after the polls.
The right-wing margin is better understood by going down to the provincial map. Ruiz pointed out 26 provinces in which the advantage attributed by the model to the right is around one point or less, with 18 where it narrows to half a point. In Málaga and Girona, about 1,000 votes could make the last deputy assigned by the poll to Vox go to the PSOE. In Seville, the program estimated about 5,000 votes that could change the last seat of the PP for a socialist one.
If those three deputies changed hands and the rest of the distribution remained, PP and Vox would be exactly at 176. A fourth seat lost by both parties would leave them below the absolute majority on their own. This shows the scope of the provincial dispute. Congress distributes seats by constituencies and a small change in the national vote can have very different effects depending on where it occurs.
The 12% who have not yet decided their vote
The poll places at 12% those who have not yet decided their ballot. According to the data presented, four out of ten undecided voters are left-wing voters. For the PSOE and the forces to its left, part of the dispute involves getting that electorate to vote. In provinces where the last deputy is decided by a small margin, mobilizing those who hesitate between voting and staying home can weigh as much as gaining support from another candidacy.
La Séptima has premiered this follow-up on its first day of broadcasts. Ruiz announced that La Recta Final will incorporate new interviews to exceed the 14,000 accumulated throughout the project. The next installments will show whether the PSOE maintains its advantage and whether Vox's decline continues in the daily series before the official start of the campaign, on Friday, November 13.
