The open primaries proposed by Irene Montero open a fracture in Sumar at the gates of closing its new electoral candidacy

The open primaries proposed by Irene Montero have divided the space preparing the candidacy to the left of the PSOE. Internal sources from Sumar consulted by 'ElConstitucional.es' assure that the leadership has asked to avoid public pronouncements while Movimiento Sumar, Izquierda Unida, Más Madrid, and the Comuns set their positions behind closed doors.

The agreed silence attempts to contain differences that have already begun to emerge. The Comuns have favorably received Podemos' call to build a unitary candidacy, while IU and Más Madrid reject including Montero on their main ballots, according to internal sources from the space. The primary proposal also does not yet have a shared response.

Amidst this debate, uncertainty around Ernest Urtasun has increased. The consulted sources suggest a possible step back by the Minister of Culture, who now doubts about the candidacy and sees himself closer to no than to yes. His position can still change, and within the space, they expect a definitive decision in the coming weeks.

Urtasun had gained support for his ability to bring together the different organizations and for his balanced profile between Barcelona and Madrid. As this newspaper reported last Saturday, he was the best-positioned option to lead the new candidacy ahead of general elections that could be brought forward to February or March if the attempt to approve a budget fails.

The minister's doubts reopen the search for leadership, although it is still premature to rule him out. The names of Aina Vidal and Ada Colau have reappeared in some internal conversations, without either of them having received a formal proposal or a decision existing about their possible role.

Urtasun's doubts reopen the leadership

The Minister of Culture continues to be a valued figure by Movimiento Sumar, Más Madrid, and the Comuns. His trajectory in Brussels, his presence in the Government, and his ability to dialogue with the different families allowed him to be presented as a candidate capable of keeping the new project united and facilitating future agreements with Compromís, Chunta Aragonesista, or Ara Més.

The consulted sources explain, however, that Urtasun has begun to express more doubts about the advisability of assuming the candidacy. The conversation remains open and some leaders still hope to convince him, although his current disposition is less favorable than just a few days ago.

Urtasun's new doubts force the recovery of alternatives that were still present in the conversations. One of them is Aina Vidal, spokesperson for the Comuns in Congress and one of the most recognizable voices in the space in recent months. Her possible candidacy still lacks a formal agreement, although several sources place her among the names that could gain strength if the minister ends up stepping aside.

Vidal celebrated this Monday that Podemos wants to move towards a joint candidacy and confirmed that the Comuns keep their channels of communication open with the purple party. She also admitted that reaching the electoral period without a candidate entails risks, although she presented this delay as a "calculated gamble" and assured that there are already names on the table.

"Let's celebrate that Podemos wants to move towards a unitary candidacy of the lefts. This is what the Comunes have been working on discreetly for a long time with Más Madrid, Izquierda Unida, Movimiento Sumar and other forces. We need a strong left to re-edit the progressive government," Vidal wrote on X.

Her words contrast with the coolness shown by other leaders and confirm that Montero's proposal has received different responses. The Comuns value the possibility of negotiating with Podemos, although they want the conversations to take place away from the spotlight and after agreeing on an operating structure that avoids the problems of 2023.

Ada Colau has also reappeared in some circles. The former mayor of Barcelona said this Monday in an interview on 'Cafè d'idees', on RTVE, that she could consider returning to institutional politics if her presence proved "especially useful". For now, she continues to reject the requests she receives to return to the front line.

Within the Comuns, the debate continues open about the role she could assume. Some voices think of Colau for a future candidacy for the Generalitat, while others keep her name among the possible options for the general elections. The consulted sources rule out that a decision has been made, but acknowledge that her return has once again become part of the conversations.

Montero's primaries divide Sumar

Podemos has anticipated the rest of the space by presenting Irene Montero and proposing primaries in which anyone can vote and compete. The initiative allows the purple party to arrive at the negotiation with a defined candidate and a procedure placed on the table, while its possible allies continue discussing the brand, the lists, and the leadership.

Movimiento Sumar has avoided committing to that formula. Its co-coordinator Rosa Martínez has assured that Podemos has not yet contacted the party and that the proposal is known through the media. The leadership prefers to first complete the work initiated with IU, Más Madrid, and the Comuns within 'Un paso al frente'.

According to internal sources consulted by this newspaper, the leadership has asked that the primaries not be discussed publicly while the negotiation continues. An immediate acceptance would allow Podemos to set the timing and method for choosing the candidacy. A frontal rejection would open a conflict with the sectors that advocate exploring unity.

The toughest position appears in Izquierda Unida. Internal sources point out that Antonio Maíllo and the IU leadership reject carrying Irene Montero on their ballots. The party believes that the candidacy should be built around a project shared by the organizations that have been working together for months and is wary of an operation directed from Podemos.

Más Madrid maintains a similar stance in the capital. The party wants Emilio Delgado to head its list and rules out sharing the Madrid ballot with Montero. This territorial refusal would still allow for other arrangements, including a candidacy of the Podemos leader for Barcelona or agreements in certain provinces.

That possibility shows the complexity of the negotiation. Alliances can vary according to the constituency, as already happens in Catalonia, where Podem and the Comuns maintain spaces for municipal cooperation. There are also recent precedents of agreements between Podemos, Sumar, and IU in Andalusia.

The conversation, therefore, affects state leadership and the distribution of each list. Organizations will have to decide where each figure runs, how many positions correspond to each party, and what autonomy territorial forces retain. The experience of 2023, when the agreement was closed at the last minute and left wounds that ended up causing Podemos's departure from the parliamentary group, is still present in all meetings.

The CIS narrows the left's margin

The September CIS barometer has added pressure to these conversations. Sumar falls to 5.7% and Podemos rises to 3.7%, an increase of more than one point that leaves the distance between both parties at barely two points.

The evolution favors Podemos after several months of decline. The purple party was at 2.5% and is again approaching 4% just as Montero has begun to build her candidacy. Sumar, for its part, drops from the 6.1% registered in July and continues to show a very reduced retention capacity among those who supported the coalition in 2023.

The poll reflects that one in five former Sumar voters now leans towards the PSOE. The transfer to Podemos has also increased, a leakage that has grown four points since July. The absence of recognizable leadership and the wear and tear of participation in the Government are already translated into vote movements.

The sum of Sumar and Podemos would reach 9.4%, still below the 12.3% and the 31 deputies jointly obtained in 2023. Furthermore, summing their percentages in a poll offers an incomplete picture. If they run separately, the provincial distribution of seats may leave both candidacies without representation in territories where a unitary list would have options.

The risk increases in constituencies such as Murcia, Alicante, Zaragoza, the Balearic Islands, Las Palmas, Tenerife, Cádiz, or Málaga. In many of them, a few thousand votes decide the last deputy and the division directly favors the candidacies with greater support.

The CIS, traditionally more favorable to the PSOE than other polling institutes, places the socialists at 31%, the PP at 25.5%, and Vox at 16.6%. Even in that estimate, PP and the far-right Vox gather 42.1% compared to the 40.4% that PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos add up to, although territorial parties prevent these percentages from being automatically transferred to a potential investiture.

The four organizations of 'Un paso al frente' are working with October as the most likely month to present their structure, internal rules, the initial distribution of lists, and a new brand that would include the word "frente" (front). By then, they must also know Urtasun's definitive decision and resolve whether to open a state-level negotiation with Podemos or seek different agreements in each constituency.

The calendar could be shortened if Pedro Sánchez tries to approve the Budgets before the end of December and suffers a parliamentary defeat. Faced with elections called for early 2027, coalitions would have ten days from the publication of the electoral decree to formalize, so the main decisions must be on track during the coming weeks.