Sumar accelerates its electoral proposal to arrive on time for possible elections in February or March if the Budgets fall

The progressive space comprising Movimiento Sumar, Izquierda Unida, Más Madrid, and the Comuns has begun to accelerate efforts to finalize its new electoral brand and the candidacy with which it intends to run in the next general elections. Time is pressing, and in recent weeks, an additional reason has emerged to clear up the remaining uncertainties as soon as possible.

Internal sources within Sumar consulted by 'ElConstitucional.es' assure that Moncloa has conveyed to them the possibility of an early election in late February or early March 2027. The date still depends on numerous variables, and Pedro Sánchez exclusively retains the power to decide when to dissolve the Cortes, but this scenario is already part of the calculations being made by the organizations gathered under the 'Un paso al frente' umbrella.

The government's intention is to try to bring new General State Budgets to Congress before the end of December. The consulted sources explain that, if the accounts were rejected during their initial procedures, Sánchez could call elections immediately afterward and turn that parliamentary defeat into the political closure of the legislature.

The failure of the Budgets does not legally oblige the calling of elections. The Constitution establishes that, if the new accounts are not approved at the beginning of the fiscal year, the previous ones are automatically extended. The dissolution of the Cortes would, therefore, be a political decision by the president in view of the difficulty of continuing to govern without a stable majority.

The Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime sets the holding of elections on the 54th day after their call. A decree approved around the turn of the year or during the first days of January would allow the polls to be placed within the timeframe conveyed to Sumar.

Sánchez publicly maintains his intention to exhaust the legislature and hold elections in 2027. However, during his interview on 'Hoy por Hoy', on 'Cadena SER', he left a small crack open in the calendar by acknowledging that there could be "technical advances". The president then avoided committing to a specific date.

The same sources assure that the Moncloa team has reached an understanding with the PNV to distance the general elections from the municipal and Basque regional elections of May 23, 2027. The nationalists want to avoid a campaign absorbed by the state confrontation between Sánchez, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, and Santiago Abascal, which could displace the territorial debate and alter their competition with EH Bildu.

The agreement reported by the sources currently lacks public confirmation. Its political logic coincides, however, with the concern expressed in recent months by PNV leaders. A state election in February or March would leave enough margin before the municipal and regional campaign in May.

Urtasun starts with an advantage

The internal race to lead the new candidacy continues to revolve around the Minister of Culture, Ernest Urtasun. As 'ElConstitucional.es' advanced, his name gathers support in a good part of the organizations participating in the reconstruction of the space.

The consulted sources maintain Urtasun as the best-placed option. His belonging to the Comuns, his connection with Movimiento Sumar, and his experience in the Government and European institutions allow him to appear as a figure of balance. He also offers a profile less associated with the disputes that wore down the coalition in recent years.

His main difficulty continues to be name recognition among the electorate. Urtasun has extensive experience in Brussels and in Catalan politics, although his public presence throughout Spain is still far from that achieved by Yolanda Díaz during the last election campaign.

In recent weeks, the name of the deputy and spokesperson for the Comuns Aina Vidal has also circulated. Her possible candidacy could not be confirmed by this newspaper, and conversations remain focused around Urtasun. Vidal has gained parliamentary prominence during the Ceuta crisis and has a recognizable voice within the space, especially in Catalonia.

The organizations had indicated September as the time to resolve the candidacy and the brand. The month has already begun, and the main decisions remain open six months after the public presentation of 'Un paso al frente'. Along with leadership, the method for drawing up the lists, the weight of each party, and the integration of territorial forces still need to be agreed upon.

That delay becomes more important given the possibility of voting at the beginning of next year. Electoral coalitions must be formalized within ten days of the call, a period too narrow to then begin a political and territorial negotiation of this magnitude.

The polls have also increased the pressure. The latest 40dB survey places Sumar at 5.7% of the votes and Podemos at 2.8%, while other estimates published at the beginning of September place the former between 6% and 7% and the latter around 3%. Both spaces ran together in 2023, when the coalition achieved 12.3% and 31 deputies. The direct sum of their current percentages does not guarantee the result of a shared candidacy either, but it allows measuring the accumulated loss of support. In case of running separately, the division would especially harm the left in small and medium-sized provinces, where a few thousand votes can decide the last seat.

Podemos maintains its own roadmap

Podemos has reached the same political moment with a much more defined candidacy. The purple formation set this Saturday as the electoral starting point for MEP and former Minister of Equality Irene Montero, in an event held under the slogan 'Peace, home, work'.

Housing, the reduction of the working day, the increase in the minimum wage, the recovery of purchasing power, and the rejection of increased military spending form the main axes of a proposal that aims to build a candidacy "as broad as possible". Podemos maintains, despite this, a very deteriorated relationship with Movimiento Sumar and has not yet specified what alliances it is willing to accept for the general elections.

The distance between both leaderships coexists with agreements in certain territories. Podem intends to maintain municipal candidacies with the Comuns in Catalunya and the purple formation has already shared a coalition with IU and Sumar in Andalusia. These understandings show that cooperation is still possible when negotiations adapt to territorial reality, although transferring it to the entire State requires resolving wounds that have remained open since 2023.

Montero's exclusion from that year's lists continues to weigh on the relationship with Yolanda Díaz's party. Since then, Podemos has left Sumar's parliamentary group, has hardened its opposition to some government decisions, and has built a strategy with greater autonomy. Formal conversations for a joint list in the next general elections have not yet begun.

The situation also worries other investiture partners. ERC's spokesperson in Congress, Gabriel Rufián, conveyed a direct warning to Sánchez this week during the control session. "You have said that you want to be president in '27 and beyond. Who are you going to add up with? The numbers don't add up for me," said the republican leader.

Rufián recalled that the latest polls grant very broad majorities to a possible alliance between the Popular Party and the far-right Vox and asked progressive organizations to stop prioritizing their acronyms over building a competitive alternative. "What good are two or three more deputies if they are going to arrive with 210?" he asked the president.

'Un paso al frente' (A Step Forward) must now resolve its leadership, its electoral name, and the distribution of candidacies before opening a substantive negotiation with Podemos. If the calendar conveyed from Moncloa ends up being imposed, that work will have to be on track before December decides whether the legislature continues with new Budgets or with the electoral clock ticking.