Tezanos' CIS gives victory to Pedro Sánchez's PSOE on 29N with up to 143 seats and leaves PP and the far-right Vox without an absolute majority

The PSOE would win the general elections on November 29 with 33.3% of the votes and between 134 and 143 seats, according to the pre-election macro-survey published by the CIS this Thursday, just hours before the official start of the campaign. The PP remains at 25.5% and between 98 and 106 deputies, while the far-right Vox reaches 18.4% and between 57 and 65. Even adding the maximum that the study attributes to each one, Feijóo and Abascal would reach 171 deputies, five below the absolute majority.

The socialist advantage has gone from 11.8 points in the October barometer to 7.8 in the pre-election one. The PSOE loses seven tenths between both studies and the PP recovers 3.3 points. These are two samples of different sizes and with different dates. The comparison with the polls shows a more pronounced change. In 2023, the PP won the general elections with 137 deputies, the PSOE stayed at 121 and Vox obtained 33. The current range would leave Feijóo with more than thirty fewer seats and Abascal close to doubling his group.

The CIS has conducted 45,074 telephone interviews in 4,190 municipalities between October 7 and 30. The Urda railway accident occurred in the last days of fieldwork and Óscar Puente's resignation came later. Also later is the SW Demoscopia poll for La Séptima published last night, which agrees on placing the PSOE first, but gives it a 3.3 point advantage and leaves PP and Vox with 174 deputies, with another two on the joint list of PP and UPN in Navarra. In the average of DatosRTVE, however, the PP is still ahead.

In the direct vote question, calculated on the census, the PSOE scores 28.7%, the PP 17.2% and Vox 15%. 15.8% still do not know which ballot they would choose. The CIS estimate is expressed on valid votes and leaves the PP closer to the PSOE. When the question is who they think will win, 54.4% of respondents point to the PP and 28.1% to the PSOE. Sánchez, for his part, is the preferred candidate to preside over the Government by 33.2%, compared to 21.1% for Feijóo and 13.4% for Abascal.

The far-right Vox attracts one in five PP voters from 2023

20.1% of those who remember having voted for the PP in 2023 say they would now vote for Vox, while 63.2% would repeat with Feijóo. Conversely, 8% of former Vox voters lean towards the PP and 75.7% would continue with Abascal. The starting point widens the imbalance because in 2023 the PP had more than double the votes of Vox. The far-right also leads the voting intention among those who were not yet old enough to vote in those general elections, with 21.5% compared to 19.6% for the PSOE and 12.7% for the PP.

To the left of the PSOE, 21.6% of those who say they voted for Sumar in 2023 now opt for the socialists, practically the same proportion as those who choose Frente Amplio, 21.4%. The CIS gives Ada Colau's candidacy 4.7% and between seven and eleven seats. The percentage reaches 6.9% if the lists that the study collects separately in the Valencian Community, the Canary Islands, and the Balearic Islands are added. In Madrid, where Frente Amplio concentrates between four and five of its seats, Podemos is playing for its only solitary deputy, Irene Montero's.

The PSOE's first position would give it room to negotiate, but the investiture would still depend on the territorial groups. ERC, which campaigns with Podemos in Catalonia, rises to between ten and fourteen seats. EH Bildu moves between seven and ten, the BNG between two and three, and Adelante Andalucía would enter with three or four. Junts and PNV drop to between two and four each. The fall of Junts and the advance of ERC and EH Bildu open up different combinations than in 2023. In a second vote, it would be enough to have more yes votes than no votes.

A re-estimation by the CIS keeps the PSOE in the lead but does give options for an absolute majority to the PP and Vox

Political analyst Eduardo Bayón has recalculated the CIS macro-survey, adjusting the weight of the responses according to the vote that interviewees remember having cast on 23J. His re-estimation keeps the PSOE as the leading force, with 29% compared to the PP's 26.6%, and cuts the socialist advantage from the CIS's 7.8 points to 2.4. The far-right Vox reaches 20.4%, 3.2 points more than in Bayón's October recalculation, while the PP loses nine tenths and the PSOE gains 1.3. Frente Amplio stands at 4.6%, one tenth below the official estimate.

In the central scenario of his projection, Bayón attributes 121 seats to the PSOE, 114 to the PP, 75 to Vox, and six to Frente Amplio. Feijóo and Abascal would sum 189 deputies, thirteen above the absolute majority. If the minimums of their respective ranges are added, they remain at 168. The main difference with the official distribution is in Vox, to which Bayón gives 75 seats in his central scenario, ten more than the CIS maximum.

The 29N campaign officially kicks off this midnight, after Sánchez's events in Seville, Feijóo in Badalona, Abascal in Colón square, Ada Colau in Vallecas, and Irene Montero in Espacio Rastro, Madrid.