The pact between the PSOE and Frente Amplio for the November 29 elections is beginning to finalize its distribution of candidacies. The socialists will occupy 70% of the positions and will head all joint lists for the Senate, while the remaining 30% will correspond to the alternative left and its territorial allies, as reported by 'elDiario.es'. The agreement will allow the space led by Ada Colau to dispute a representation that it would hardly achieve by running separately.
Sources from Frente Amplio consulted by 'ElConstitucional.es' explain that most of the second positions will correspond to their space, with exceptions where the socialists want to retain the positions that already gave them representation. In Galicia, these sources place this distribution in all four provinces, barring last-minute changes. They also point to its extension throughout Andalusia, although this forecast is pending the definitive closing of the candidacies.
The PSOE will retain practically all the positions it managed to convert into seats in 2023. The known exceptions are the second candidate for Valencia, which will correspond to Compromís, and the second for Navarra, reserved for Frente Amplio, with the name yet to be determined. The distribution thus protects the socialists' previous representation and concentrates a good part of their partners' possibilities in the seats that the unitary candidacy can win.
Second positions will depend on the alliance's progress
The importance of the agreement is understood by the Senate's electoral system. In provincial constituencies, four senators are elected and each voter can mark up to three candidates, even from different parties. The most voted individuals obtain the seat. Joint support for the three names on a list usually allows the winning party to secure three seats and the second party to get one.
With the scheme of two socialist candidates and one from Frente Amplio, a victory for the alliance could translate into two seats for the PSOE and one for its partners. If the candidacy secures only one senator, the options for the alternative left are considerably reduced. The 30% of agreed positions therefore represents an electoral opportunity whose outcome will depend on the vote for each candidate.
The starting point shows why both spaces are interested in concentrating support. In 2023, the PP obtained 120 elected senators and the PSOE, 72, while Sumar was left without representation with its own candidacies. An internal socialist report calculated that a unitary list could gain up to 40 seats compared to running separately. That estimate contemplated a broader unity, with Podemos, so its results must be distinguished from the scope of the agreement finally registered.
That calculation placed Madrid, Malaga, Teruel, Burgos, or Valladolid among the territories with possibilities of a turnaround. But negotiations between PP and Vox to avoid the division of the right-wing vote may reduce the advantage of the progressive alliance. The eventual withdrawal of far-right candidates in favor of the popular ones would precisely alter the competition for those three seats that the most supported candidacy usually obtains.
The PSOE will receive 95% of electoral subsidies
The economic distribution is even more favorable to the socialists than that of the candidacies. The PSOE will receive 95% of the electoral subsidies of the state coalition and the rest of its members will distribute 5%. The document also establishes that contributions to electoral expenses will be returned respecting the amounts paid by each formation. For these elections, 21,167.64 euros are foreseen per elected senator and 32 cents for each vote received by a candidate who obtains a seat.
The Balearic Islands have their own agreements and differences between islands. In Mallorca, the campaign budget and subsidies will be distributed 70% for the PSIB and 30% for Més, without economic participation for Movimiento Sumar or Esquerra Unida. In Ibiza, the distribution reserves 60% for the socialists and 10% for each of the other four partners, Sumar, IU, Podemos, and Ara Eivissa.
In Formentera, which will elect a senator separate from Ibiza for the first time, the PSOE and Gent per Formentera will receive 47% each and Movimiento Sumar, the remaining 6%. Podemos also participates in the Menorca agreement, along with the socialists, Més per Menorca, and IU. Its presence in these island alliances introduces a territorial exception to its absence from the state coalition.
The state pact brings together PSOE, IU, Movimiento Sumar, Más Madrid, Compromís, Chunta Aragonesista and Batzarre under the name 'Senate of Progress'. A joint commission will coordinate its operation and resolve conflicts through binding decisions, in addition to proposing the program and candidacies previously approved by the party leaderships. The deadline to submit the lists to the provincial electoral boards is Monday, October 26.
