The PSOE's "useful vote" opens a rift in the newborn Broad Front due to the withdrawal of lists and clashes with the resistance of Izquierda Unida

Pedro Sánchez asks to bet "all on red" and the Broad Front discusses how far it can concede to stop the right. The PSOE's call for the useful vote has opened a dispute over the withdrawal of candidacies for Congress in certain provinces, with Izquierda Unida among those most opposed. The discussion comes after the failure of the state agreement with Podemos and with polls placing the PP and the far-right Vox above an absolute majority.

Sources from the Broad Front consulted this week by 'ElConstitucional.es' confirm proposals to concentrate the vote and incorporate independents from the space into the socialist lists in Galicia, Euskadi, and nine other provinces. These are Cáceres, Badajoz, Huelva, Jaén, León, Salamanca, Albacete, Ciudad Real, and La Rioja. The approach affects the territorial presence of a coalition recently presented as an alternative to the PSOE.

"Anyone who says there are no conversations is lying," say sources from the space, who describe internal tension and differences between federal IU and some territorial organizations. Among the possibilities discussed is that IU maintains candidacies where the Broad Front declines to run, an outcome whose viability depends on the electoral agreements signed. In Teruel, this option has ended up clashing with the pact signed with Chunta Aragonesista.

The contacts described by these sources still have not resulted in a closed agreement for Congress. The leaderships of the PSOE and the Broad Front publicly deny negotiating it. The socialist Organization Secretary, Rebeca Torró, attributed the controversy on Thursday to "misunderstandings" and maintained that the conversations had been limited to the Senate, where they will indeed run together.

IU defends its ballot and Teruel exposes the limits of withdrawal

The debate became public on Tuesday, when Emilio Delgado spoke on 'La noche en 24 horas' about conversations to optimize electoral results. The Broad Front later clarified that he was referring to the Senate. Antonio Maíllo has also defended that the understanding with the PSOE is limited to the Upper House, while Ernest Urtasun claimed on Thursday to compete in all provinces, leaving the explanation of possible exceptions to the organizations involved.

Resistance has also been expressed from the territories. Lander Martínez, from Sumar Mugimendua, assured on Thursday that the Broad Front will run in the three Basque constituencies. IU Aragón responded to the useful vote argument with an explicit message. "There are no useless votes and Teruel is not a second-class province," it published, defending that voters can choose a candidacy that represents their positions.

On Friday, Marta Abengochea admitted that IU Aragón has not found a legal way to run in Teruel without CHA changing its position. The coalition agreement attributes to the Aragonese party the decision on the constituencies in which to present itself. The Aragonese coordinator maintains her disagreement with the withdrawal and has ruled out asking for votes for another formation.

The resignation also does not automatically concentrate all alternative left-wing votes in the PSOE. Podemos maintains its intention to run in Teruel and claims the support of those voters. For IU, disappearing from the ballot also means losing its own presence in a province where it has organization and municipal responsibilities, while another formation continues to compete for that same space.

The Teruel figures allow us to measure the difficulty. In 2023, the PP obtained two deputies with 26,586 votes and the PSOE, one with 22,226. Sumar gathered 4,126. The socialist and Sumar total would have reached 26,352 votes, still 234 below the PP, maintaining the same distribution. To surpass the popular party, another 235 votes would have been needed, even transferring all the support from that coalition.

Six provinces show where the sum would have subtracted seats from PP and the far-right Vox

To check the scope of the proposal, this newspaper has recalculated the distribution with the definitive results of 2023 published by the Central Electoral Board. The exercise adds Sumar's votes to the PSOE, maintains those of the other candidacies, and applies the D'Hondt formula. It is a retrospective comparison. That Sumar included Podemos and its votes cannot be entirely attributed to the current Broad Front.

In the nine provinces indicated outside Galicia and Euskadi, which distribute forty deputies, the sum would have changed four results. In Badajoz, Huelva, and Jaén it would have displaced Vox; in Salamanca, the third deputy of the PP. Lugo and Ourense offer two other cases where gathering socialist and Sumar support would have reduced popular representation.

Jaén shows to what extent real transfer matters. It would have been necessary to transfer practically all of Sumar's votes to take away the deputy from the far-right Vox. With 80% it would not have been enough. In Badajoz, on the other hand, the change would have occurred with a little more than a quarter. Withdrawing a list can be decisive with very different movements depending on the province.

In Cáceres, León, Albacete and La Rioja, the tie of two deputies between PP and PSOE would have been maintained. Ciudad Real would have kept two popular, two socialists and one from Vox. The concentration would have increased the votes of the socialist candidacy without reducing the seats of the right. A change in the support of 29N can alter these accounts, but it requires analyzing each constituency again.

Polls and the territorial map complicate the "all to PSOE"

The average of DatosRTVE, in its Friday update, placed the PP at 31.5% and 135 deputies, the PSOE at 26.8% and 106, and Vox at 18.7% and 65. The two right-wing parties would add 200 seats, compared to the 176 of the absolute majority. The average weights recent polls and includes the CIS, whose estimates are more favorable to the socialists than those of the rest of the main houses.

The IMOP poll for 'El Confidencial', also published on Friday, offered a slightly less favorable scenario for the right, with 195 deputies between PP and Vox. It placed the PSOE at 27.1% and the Frente Amplio at 8.9%, both above their previous measurement. This evolution allows Colau's space to defend that it can still recover support. National percentages, by themselves, do not determine where a withdrawal would change the last deputy.

Galicia forces us to distinguish between gaining socialist representation and reducing that of the right. In A Coruña, the complete sum of 2023 would have left the PP with its four deputies and would have expelled the BNG, with the joint candidacy of PSOE and Sumar occupying the other four. In Pontevedra, it would have kept the four seats that both forces achieved separately; if only half of Sumar's vote had gone to the PSOE and the rest had abstained, the PP would have gained a fourth deputy.

In Euskadi, the sum would not have subtracted any representative from the PP either. In Bizkaia, it would have kept the three that PSOE and Sumar obtained separately. In Álava, it would have displaced the PNV, maintaining the popular deputy; in Gipuzkoa, it would also have gained ground from the Basque nationalists, in a province where PP and Vox did not obtain representation. The composition of a possible investiture majority thus adds another dimension to the calculation.

The dispute also affects voters who want to stop PP and Vox and, at the same time, maintain a force with the capacity to pressure the PSOE from its left. Their response can be to vote socialist, choose another candidacy, or abstain, with different effects on the distribution. Parties have until this Monday, October 26, to present their lists. In Teruel, IU Aragón maintains its request for CHA to reconsider its withdrawal until that deadline.