The legislative midterm elections in United States, scheduled for next November 3, are presented as a test for President Donald Trump. Less than two weeks before the vote, polls show an advantage for Democrats over Republicans and reflect the discontent of part of the population with the economic situation and the management of the current Government.
According to a CNN poll published on October 21, Democrats have 49% support compared to 39% for Republicans among registered voters. The same study places Trump's approval at 32%, his lowest level in this measurement.
These elections, known as midterm elections or midterms, are held between two presidential elections and allow measuring citizen support for the president. Although Trump is not running for re-election in this vote, the result could hinder the implementation of his policies during the two remaining years of his term.
The economy and the cost of living take their toll on Trump
One of the main concerns among American voters is the economy. The CNN poll reflects that the cost of living continues to be the issue that most worries citizens and that Trump's economic management receives a particularly negative evaluation.
According to this study, only 27% of respondents approve of his management of the economy and 23% support his actions against inflation, that is, the generalized rise in prices. In addition, two-thirds of the Americans consulted believe that the president's policies have worsened the economic situation.
Discontent is not limited to the economy. Corruption in the Government and the state of American democracy are also among voters' concerns. In this context, six out of ten respondents state that their vote will serve to send a message about Trump and, among them, those who want to show their rejection of the president predominate. However, the Democratic advance does not mean that all voters trust the opposition. The same poll indicates that 41% believe that the country would be better if the Democrats won the elections, compared to 37% who believe it would be worse. Another 22% think that the change of majority would not make a difference.
What Republicans and Democrats are playing for in Congress
To understand the importance of these elections, it must be taken into account that the U.S. Congress is made up of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Both participate in the approval of laws, but they have different functions. The House of Representatives has 435 seats and is completely renewed in these elections. To control it, a party needs to reach the majority, set at 218 representatives. Republicans start with a very narrow advantage, so Democrats only need to win a few more seats than they currently have to take control.
If Democrats achieve that majority, they will be able to lead parliamentary committees, promote their own initiatives, and subject the Trump Administration's decisions to greater political scrutiny. They will also have more capacity to investigate government actions. However, that does not mean they can approve all their proposals on their own. The Senate, for its part, has 100 members and 35 seats are up for renewal this year. Republicans currently maintain control of this chamber, but polls place several state elections in a very tight situation. For Democrats, regaining the majority would mean having more capacity to influence the approval of laws and the confirmation of certain presidential appointments.
The difference between both chambers is important: a federal law must pass the corresponding parliamentary procedure and have the approval of both chambers, in addition to the president's signature. Therefore, if Democrats control one or both chambers, Trump could find more obstacles to advance his agenda, although he would still retain the powers inherent to the Presidency. Polls, however, do not guarantee that outcome. The distribution of seats depends on votes in each district and state, not solely on the percentage of national support for each party. That is why, although Democrats start with an advantage in the polls, the final result will depend on the most disputed contests and voter turnout.
