Donald Trump has once again questioned the reliability of the United States electoral system a week before the midterm legislative elections. The president has assured that he will accept the result of the elections on November 3 if he considers them clean, a condition that has rekindled concern about his possible reaction if the Republican Party loses control of Congress.
"I will, if they are clean elections," he responded this Tuesday when asked if he would respect the result regardless of which party wins. Trump also stated that he would find a way to work with Democrats if they manage to gain control of the House of Representatives. The elections, known as midterms, will decide the composition of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats, in addition to numerous state offices. The result will be key for the remainder of Trump's term: if Democrats gain a majority in one or both chambers, they will have more capacity to block presidential initiatives, push for parliamentary investigations, and oversee the Government.
Polls place Democrats in a favorable position to regain the Lower House, although the final result is still open. According to a CNN poll published on October 21, Democrats were ten points ahead of Republicans in voting preference for the seats in their respective districts. The same poll placed Trump's approval at 32%. In the Senate, however, the dispute is more complicated for the opposition, which needs to win four net seats to achieve a majority.
Discontent over the cost of living has become one of the main problems for Republicans. Food, gasoline, and housing prices worry voters, while the war with Iran and the Administration's tariff policy are also part of the economic debate. More than 30 million Americans had already voted early on October 26, with especially high figures in some key territories. However, early participation alone does not allow anticipating the final result.
Doubts about the result and the campaign's judicial setbacks
Trump's statements come after years of questioning his acceptance of election results. The Republican continues to not recognize his defeat against Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential elections and has maintained his accusations of fraud without providing evidence to prove that the result was altered. After those elections, his followers stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021 while Congress was certifying Biden's victory. In the final stretch of this campaign, the president has again focused on alleged electoral fraud. This Monday he announced a reward of up to one million dollars for those who report irregularities in past elections or in the upcoming legislative elections, provided that the information contributes to the arrest and conviction of those responsible.
His Administration has also suffered judicial setbacks. A California court rejected the federal government's request to prevent the counting of votes linked to some 20,000 voter registrations of people whose citizenship the White House questioned. In addition, the Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit related to the possible certification of results in Alaska if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan loses by a narrow margin to a candidate with a similar name. These actions have increased criticism about the Executive's intervention in the electoral process.
The president has also insisted that Americans should vote in person and has questioned the security of mail-in voting. However, electoral authorities and experts recall that the system has verification mechanisms, audits, and controls to check the results. Distrust also appears in the polls. An Ipsos poll for ABC News and The Washington Post, published by EFE on October 20, reflected that seven out of ten Americans did not trust Trump to accept a Republican defeat. Only 28% said they trusted that he would recognize an unfavorable result for his party.
Democrats seek to turn discontent into a parliamentary majority
The Democratic Party tries to take advantage of the discomfort with the economic management and the fall in popularity of the president to regain control of the House of Representatives. Its campaign focuses on issues such as the cost of living, healthcare, housing, and civil rights, while different candidacies seek to mobilize voters dissatisfied with the Republican Administration.
However, the Democratic advance is not guaranteed. The participation of Republican voters, the distribution of electoral districts, and the evolution of the last days of the campaign can alter the forecasts. Republicans retain options to mobilize their electorate and maintain control of Congress, so the result will depend on the contests in the most disputed states and districts. Trump has intensified his campaign events to support his party's candidates. On Monday, he traveled to Mississippi to support Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, who faces a tighter-than-expected competition in a traditionally Republican state. The president has asked his followers to vote thinking of him, although his name does not appear on the ballots.
The day of November 3 will serve to measure electoral support for the president's agenda and determine the balance of power in Washington. While Democrats aspire to regain control over the Executive, Trump's statements about the cleanliness of the elections keep open the question of how he will react if the results are unfavorable for Republicans.
