Donald Trump faces legislative elections this Tuesday, November 3, that could change the course of his presidency. Polls and projections place Democrats as favorites to regain the House of Representatives and give them options to also snatch the Senate from Republicans, although the battle for the latter chamber remains very open.
The midterm elections, known in the United States as midterms, arrive with Trump worn down in the polls, concern about the cost of living, and a mobilized opposition. If Democrats manage to control at least one of the two chambers, the president will lose the parliamentary majority that has accompanied the start of his second term and will have more difficulty advancing his plans.
The result is still to be decided and will depend on dozens of state and district races. But the data shows a worrying scenario for the White House. The latest poll from The Economist and YouGov, conducted between October 23 and 26, gives Democrats an eleven-point lead among those who have already voted or say they will certainly do so.
In that group, 52% lean towards Democratic congressional candidates and 41% towards Republicans. The difference narrows to six points among all registered voters, a sign that turnout will be decisive. The same survey places Trump's approval at 39%, compared to 58% who disapprove of his management.
While Republicans try to mobilize their voters in the final stretch, Trump has again questioned the electoral process. This week he assured that he will accept the results "if they are honest elections," a condition with which he revives a discourse he already used before previous votes and which has fueled doubts among his followers.
Democrats start with an advantage in the House
On Tuesday, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, elected in districts across the country, will be renewed. To control the chamber, 218 are needed. Democrats need a net gain of three seats compared to the 2024 result to reach that majority, although the composition of the House can vary during the legislature due to vacancies or special elections.
Projections indicate they have a chance to achieve it. The Cook Political Report, one of the references in American electoral analysis, on Friday revised twelve House races in a favorable direction for Democrats and placed their possible majority between 227 and 240 seats.
The independent model Call the Map calculated this Friday an 85% probability that Democrats will regain the House. Another model, Scrutinel, raised that possibility to 93%. These are simulations based on polls and other data, not an election result: even a low-probability option can end up happening.
The national Democratic advantage also does not automatically translate into the number of representatives. In the United States, each seat is decided in its own district, so the geographical distribution of the vote, specific candidates, and turnout in the tightest races matter.
Among the territories to watch is Pennsylvania, where several Republican representatives are defending competitive districts. In the eighth district, for example, Cook has moved the race from a tie to a slight Democratic advantage. Disputes in states like Texas, where district boundaries have been redrawn with the impetus of Republicans, may also be important.
The party occupying the White House usually suffers wear and tear in midterm elections. Trump already experienced a defeat in the House in 2018, during his first presidency, when Democrats won 235 seats and regained control from Republicans.
A new Democratic majority would allow the party to chair committees, open investigations, and demand documentation from the Administration. It could also block legislative projects from the president. If Democrats win, their leader in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, is emerging as a candidate to preside over it, a decision that will fall to the members of the new House.
The Senate remains open and several Republican states are in dispute
The battle for the Senate is different. Republicans currently have a majority of 53 senators against 47 for the Democratic bloc, including independents who usually vote with them. In November, 35 of the 100 seats are being contested, and Democrats need to end up with at least 51 to control the chamber, as a 50-50 tie would give the Republican Vice President, JD Vance, the tie-breaking vote.
Models agree that the House of Representatives is more favorable for Democrats, but differ on their options in the Senate. This Friday, Call the Map gave them a 60% chance of controlling it, compared to the 71% calculated by Scrutinel. The differences between models show that several state races can tip the outcome one way or another.
The Economist and YouGov poll also reflects that difficulty. Among voters most likely to go to the polls in states electing a senator, the Democratic advantage was four points, lower than that registered by their House candidates nationwide.
One of the most closely watched disputes is in North Carolina, where former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley. Cooper has secured a significant funding advantage: as of mid-October, he had raised some $49.6 million, compared to his rival's $13.7 million, according to Associated Press.
In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is trying to win back a seat for his party against Republican Jon Husted, appointed to fill the vacancy left by JD Vance when he became vice president. Trump won Ohio in his three presidential campaigns, but polls now describe a competitive race.
Also at stake is Texas, a state that Republicans have dominated for decades. There, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Trump ally who defeated Senator John Cornyn in the primaries, are competing. As of mid-October, Talarico had raised more than $146 million, well above Paxton's $22 million.
In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is seeking re-election against Democrat Troy Jackson. And in Kansas and Iowa, two traditionally Republican-leaning states, Trump has added campaign events for this Sunday to mobilize his voters and support his Senate candidates.
Early voting is already growing in several of these territories. In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted by Wednesday, compared to 4.2 million at the same time in the 2022 legislative elections. Higher early turnout alone does not reveal who will win, because some of those voters might have voted on Election Day anyway.
Control of the Senate is especially important for Trump because that chamber intervenes in the confirmation of judges, government members, and other federal appointments. A Democratic majority could hinder these designations, in addition to stopping laws promoted by the White House.
Trump again sows doubt before the polls
The president has turned much of the campaign into a defense of his management and a call to his followers to prevent a Democratic victory. But he has also again resorted to accusations about the cleanliness of the elections, after having spread for years the false thesis that the 2020 presidential elections were stolen from him.
This week, Trump stated that he will accept the result "if they are honest elections". In his rallies, he has accused Democrats of cheating and has questioned electoral procedures in different states. He has not provided evidence of widespread fraud that justifies anticipating that the November 3 results will be manipulated.
The controversy has also reached the courts. His Administration's Department of Justice has tried to get California to temporarily set aside ballots from people whom the federal government considers possible non-citizens, until their situation is verified. State authorities have questioned the reliability of the list and the courts have so far rejected the request to separate those votes.
Voting by non-citizens in federal elections is illegal, but available data indicate that detected cases are rare and there is no evidence of widespread fraud capable of altering the outcome of US elections.
At the same time, Trump faces the economic discontent of a part of the electorate. In a poll by ABC News, The Washington Post, and Ipsos published in October, more respondents trusted Democrats to manage the cost of living —38%— than Republicans —24%—.
Tuesday's votes do not elect a president. Trump will remain in the White House, but the Congress that emerges from the polls will determine with what support and with what controls he will have to govern for the rest of his term. The new representatives and senators will take office in January 2027.
