The United States celebrates this Tuesday, November 3, the midterm elections, known as 'midterms', an election that comes at a time of discontent with Donald Trump's administration. Although Americans will not vote to elect a new president, the results could shape the political future of the White House during the last two years of his term.
Republicans face the challenge of retaining the majority they currently hold in both chambers of Congress, while Democrats seek to regain ground and become a counterweight to the decisions of the Trump administration.
National polls give an advantage to the Democratic opposition, which surpasses Republicans by more than eight points in general voting intention for Congress. However, the distribution of seats and differences between states mean that the outcome remains open.
What is voted on in the US midterm elections?
Midterm elections are held every four years, exactly halfway through the presidential term. Unlike general elections, these elections do not elect the president, but rather renew part of the legislative power and decide various political offices in the states. In this election, Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators who make up the Senate. Gubernatorial elections will also be held in 36 states, in addition to other votes to renew state legislatures and various local offices.
The House of Representatives is especially important because it has the power to pass federal laws that affect the entire country. Currently, Republicans have a very narrow majority, with 218 representatives compared to 214 Democrats, plus two vacant seats and one independent who usually aligns with Republicans.
The situation in the Senate is also at stake. Republicans hold 53 seats, while Democrats have 45 and two other independent senators who usually vote with them. To achieve a majority, the opposition needs to reach 51 seats. Therefore, the outcome of these elections could change the political balance of the United States and influence the decisions Donald Trump can make until the end of his term.
What do the 'midterms' election polls say and which states can decide the outcome?
Polls place Democrats in a favorable position to regain the House of Representatives. The opposition maintains a lead of more than eight points in national voting intention, although this difference does not guarantee that they will win a majority of seats.
The battle for the Senate presents a tighter scenario. According to the RealClearPolitics poll average collected before election day, Democrats could reach 52 senators compared to 48 Republicans. However, the differences between candidates are small and several results are within the margin of error. Among the states that could be decisive are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. These are territories where polls reflect a very close competition between the two major parties.
Specifically, Democrats have an advantage in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, while Republicans maintain better numbers in Iowa and Kansas. The difference in these territories does not exceed six points, so the result may vary during the count. The outcome of the elections will have direct consequences for the Donald Trump Administration. If Republicans retain both chambers, the president will be able to continue pushing his political agenda with a favorable Congress. However, if Democrats regain one of them, they will have more capacity to block initiatives, control committees, and scrutinize government decisions.
Should the opposition gain control of both chambers, Trump would face the last two years of his term with a Congress dominated by his political rivals, which could hinder the approval of new laws and increase institutional confrontation.
